UK Data Response Public Finances (Nov.) The improvement in the public finances in November leaves borrowing on track to meet the OBR’s Autumn Statement forecasts for the current fiscal year. And we think stronger GDP growth will result in a... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand to keep rates on hold throughout 2017 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate on hold at 1.50% today, and with fiscal policy taking the lead in boosting growth but inflationary pressures benign, the BoT is likely to keep rates... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Reform agenda takes off in 2016 2016 will be remembered as the year that Prime Minister Modi finally began to deliver on promises of much-needed economic reform. However, with a number of state elections due to take place over the... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What to look out for in Saudi Arabia’s 2017 budget Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister, Mohammed al-Jadaan, will deliver his maiden budget later this month, which is likely to reinforce the government’s commitment to tighter fiscal policy in order to... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Balancing the budget will be more painful The ratings agencies have shown that they are full of Christmas cheer by maintaining Australia’s AAA credit rating even though the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook revealed that the budget deficit... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will political risks halt the euro-zone recovery? Rising euroscepticism and a packed election timetable next year mean that there is a significant risk that the euro-zone breaks up. Even in our central scenario in which the currency union holds... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should inflation expectations concern the MPC? The MPC has not surprisingly emphasised the importance of inflation expectations in determining the degree to which it is prepared to tolerate an overshoot of the inflation target. After all, low... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly AAA – Going, going, gone? Even if the ratings agencies were to take away Australia’s AAA credit rating immediately after the publication of the Mid-year Economic and Fiscal Outlook on Monday, which we suspect will reveal that... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What to expect in 2017 and beyond Donald Trump’s surprise win in the Presidential election has introduced uncertainty across a number of policy dimensions, but the likelihood of a significant fiscal stimulus next year points to a pick... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Ambitious budget unlikely to be realised President Muhammadu Buhari’s latest budget proposal is overly ambitious; we expect that both spending and revenue will disappoint. While Mr. Buhari presented his spending plan as way of lifting the... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Can sterling hold onto its recent gains? The continued rally in sterling over the past month or so means that it is now around 10% lower on a trade-weighted basis relative to where it stood on the eve of the EU referendum, rather than the 15... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Malaysia moves to stabilise the ringgit The Malaysian central bank (BNM) has introduced a range of measures to stabilise the ringgit, which has been the region’s worst performing currency over the past month. The most significant step it... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Nov.) In October, signs of fiscal slippage eased somewhat in the euro zone’s periphery. But the Greek bailout deal remains at risk of collapse and the growing likelihood of a bail-out for Italian banks... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has Italy’s new PM been handed a poisoned chalice? Italy’s new Prime Minister has two major challenges ahead of him – reforming the electoral system and managing the banking crisis – both of which could spell disaster for his party at the next... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update From bad to worse and beyond in Brazil Signs that Brazil’s economy was turning a corner around the middle of this year have been extinguished by a recent run of awful data and – more ominously – renewed political strife. There are still... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian election likely to trigger further fiscal loosening Our Tracker shows that total capital outflows from the emerging world reached a ten-month high of $75bn last month. This was driven mainly by an acceleration in outflows from China, but it seems that... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
