UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2016 Preview Despite Chancellor Hammond’s rare opportunity to make a substantial changes to the stance of UK fiscal policy in the Autumn Statement on 23rd November, lingering worries about the outlook for the... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan moves one step closer to helicopter money With its first fixed-rate operation today in support of the new target for 10-year Japanese Government Bond yields, the Bank of Japan has moved closer to full-fledged helicopter money. There are... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Oil sector supports stabilisation of Saudi economy The latest figures from our Saudi GDP Tracker suggest that the Kingdom’s economy stabilised in Q3, supported by stronger growth in the oil sector. Some more timely indicators have raised fresh... 16th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update External position healthy despite wider trade deficit Although the monthly trade deficit widened a touch in October, a number of factors should keep it in check over the coming months. This should keep India’s financial markets relatively secure in the... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Commodity prices shift from headwind to tailwind The recent leap in the prices of the main commodity exports of Australia and New Zealand will boost domestic demand in both economies, but it is unlikely to lead to much faster wage growth and much... 15th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will European bonds fare better than US Treasuries? In the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election, we are nudging up our forecasts for government bond yields in Europe. But we still don’t expect that they will rise as fast as in... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What does Trump’s win mean for fiscal policy and the Fed? As it stands now, our working assumption is that Trump and Congress will agree on a fiscal stimulus early next year, nearly all of it tax cuts, worth somewhere between $3trn and $5trn over the next... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Would a US fiscal stimulus help Hammond be bold? We have argued that there are good reasons to think that the economic ramifications for the UK of Donald Trump’s victory in the US election are unlikely to be very large. However, at the margin, his... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Oct.) As the European Commission (EC) undertakes its annual review of euro-zone member states’ budget submissions, yet more signs of fiscal slippage emerged in the South. Finances in Spain and Portugal... 7th November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update GST begins to take shape Confirmation that a consensus has been reached on the various rates of the new Good and Services Tax (GST) marks another important step towards its implementation. A multi-tiered GST is far from... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Support from looser fiscal policy set to wane China’s overall fiscal stance has become increasingly loose in recent quarters on the back of a growing budget deficit and a renewed acceleration in off-budget borrowing by local government financing... 4th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Failed debt plan another blow to President Buhari The Nigerian senate’s decision to block the president’s borrowing plans may preclude an infrastructure-focused stimulus plan. The bill’s failure highlights the importance of boosting domestic non-oil... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What would be the impact of a cut in VAT? While the fiscal cost of cutting Value Added Tax (VAT) would be quite high, it could provide theeconomy with valuable support by limiting the rise in inflation and associated real income squeeze. 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Government likely to miss privatisation target With more than half of the fiscal year over, the government’s aim of raising nearly INR600bn through asset sales of various state-owned companies looks unrealistic. Faced with a number of state... 2nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal fiscal update doesn't alter dismal growth outlook Finance Minister Bill Morneau focused entirely on longer-term infrastructure spending in today’s fiscal update, offering no new short-term stimulus measures to bolster the struggling economy. If, as... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Retail sales growth slows sharply as inflation rises The euro-zone’s consumer sector appears to have had another poor quarter in Q3. Retail sales volumes were flat in August, while timelier national data point to a contraction in sales in September... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
