India Chart Pack Anti-corruption drive has further to run The government’s shock demonetisation announcement earlier this month was its boldest measure yet to tackle corruption and formalise large parts of the shadow economy, but it is unlikely to be the... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2016: Creating room for manoeuvre The recent robustness of the economy prompted the Chancellor to make only a modest adjustment to the stance of fiscal policy in his first Autumn Statement. But his new fiscal rules provide room for... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Having slowed in Q3, we expect growth in Emerging Europe to recover over the course of the next year as Russia continues to pull out of recession and investment in the Central European economies... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would Trump’s repatriation tax boost the US stock market? While Donald Trump’s plan to tax retained corporate income held offshore at 10% could encourage US multinationals to repatriate funds, we doubt that it would provide a big boost to the S&P 500. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Housing and Trump add to list of economy’s woes The economy has recovered from the temporary disruption caused by the wildfires earlier this year and the slump in mining-related investment, triggered by the collapse in oil prices last year, is... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Autumn Statement 2016 Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Autumn Statement at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump fiscal stimulus will boost GDP growth The prospect of a major fiscal stimulus means that we are formally raising our forecasts for real GDP growth, inflation and interest rates. There is still considerable uncertainty surrounding exactly... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Oct.) While Chancellor Hammond would have welcomed October’s improvement in the public finances, it is unlikely to be a sign of things to come. This will probably prevent him from being too bold in the... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM markets stabilise after post-Trump sell-off Financial markets across the emerging world have stabilised following an initial sell-off in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election earlier this month. This partly reflects... 22nd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tighter financial conditions won’t stop the Fed Although the tightening of financial conditions has persuaded the Fed to hold off from tightening monetary policy on several occasions over the past couple of years, we doubt that the recent surge in... 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly How much support will Mr Hammond provide? The rumour mill has been a little quieter than usual. But the Chancellor is surely piecing together a package of giveaways for his Autumn Statement – perhaps something in the region of about £7bn in... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trump: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ The markets have convinced themselves that there is a major fiscal stimulus coming early next year, that a roll-back of regulation will boost the financial sector and that Trump will take a much... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property market starting to cool One of the key drivers of the economic turnaround this year, the property market,is starting to cool. Growth in the prices of new residential properties slumped inOctober in the largest (tier 1 and... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Bank of Japan on hold for foreseeable future With the yen weakening dramatically since the US election and incoming data showing GDP growth strong last quarter, there is now little pressure on the Bank of Japan to ease further. Less positively... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Just how big are Portugal’s fiscal problems? After narrowly avoiding EU fines for its excessive fiscal deficit, the Portuguese Government has a lot of work to do to get its finances in order. But strong political resistance to austerity and... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank stands pat, but further rate hikes likely Today’s decision by Egypt’s central bank to keep its key interest unchanged at 14.75% is probably a pause in the tightening cycle. We think the fall in the pound since it was floated will push... 17th November 2016 · 1 min read
