Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s pension reforms: five key questions With Brazil returning from carnival, thoughts are shifting back to President Temer’s domestic policy agenda and, in particular, the prospects for planned pensions reform over the coming months that... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Chancellor offers little further help on business rates Hopes that the Chancellor would use today’s Budget to find a way of providing more meaningful relief for those businesses set to see the largest increases in business rates in April, were largely... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa grants crisis: Edging towards the cliff edge The looming shutdown of South Africa’s social grant system could temporarily cut consumption by about 0.4%-pts of GDP per month. Policymakers will probably be able to fudge a last-minute deal to keep... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update UK Budget Checklist This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the key measures and numbers announced during the Chancellor’s Budget at 12.30pm tomorrow and to provide some instant context. 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Surveys point to a strong Q1 Survey data for February suggest that euro-zone GDP growth accelerated in Q1 following two healthy quarterly gains of 0.4% in the second half of last year. After February’s rise, the PMI pointed to an... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Feb.) The European Commission recently released new forecasts agreeing with our view that the peripheral economies will miss their fiscal deficit targets again this year. While bond yields dropped back in... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Spring Budget 2017 Preview The more rapid improvement in the public finances than anticipated in the Autumn Statement, should give the Chancellor a borrowing windfall. However, the recent strength in the economy means that... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump struggling to implement his agenda President Donald Trump's speech to a joint session of Congress this evening offered only a little additional clarity on the tax reforms and additional spending the White House will be seeking from... 1st March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update “Macronomics” could put France on the right track French presidential candidate Emmanuel Macron last night confirmed that he intends to cut overall government spending, boost public investment and overhaul the labour market. These are all long... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack A bad month for Indonesia A number of developments over the past month have cast a shadow over Indonesia’s prospects. The first was the publication of GDP figures for the final quarter of last year which showed a slowdown in... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s fiscal squeeze continues South Africa’s budget for the 2017/18 fiscal year, which envisages a fiscal squeeze of around 0.5% of GDP, looks a bit more plausible than previous budget projections. But it now seems that domestic... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jan.) Weak public borrowing compared to the consensus forecast in January was due to a change in the way the ONS measures corporation tax receipts. Revisions to previous months actually means that borrowing... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: New data spring nasty surprises in Angola & Ghana New official economic data have revealed that the economies of Angola and Ghana are in much worse shape than we had previously believed. The revisions should draw attention to the weak statistical... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can wage growth keep up with rising inflation? Last week’s labour market and inflation figures have fueled concerns that the impact of rising inflation on real earnings will cause a significant slowdown in consumer spending growth. Indeed, rising... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly State infrastructure spending offsetting Federal inaction You’d be forgiven for thinking that given the Federal government’s desire for fiscal restraint, Australia is unlikely to follow Trump’s lead on public infrastructure. But State governments are... 17th February 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Agreement or not, Greece’s troubles are far from over The latest news on the Greek economy support the IMF’s pessimistic views about the sustainability of Greek debt. But regardless of whether a deal on the third bailout is reached or not, rising... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
