UK Economics Update Student loans the last nail in the coffin of the fiscal rule The implementation of a change to how student loans are classified in the public finances, on top of a jump in government spending so far this year and the 2019 Spending Round, means the Government’s... 16th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stimulus still likely to boost spending The RBA’s interest rate cuts and the additional tax refunds the government announced in May have yet to boost business and consumer confidence. But lower interest and tax payments will free up around... 13th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico’s government sticking to fiscal discipline The 2020 budget presented by Mexico’s finance ministry at the weekend suggests that there will be a tilt towards providing modest stimulus to the struggling economy. But the big picture is that the... 9th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The recovery in Australian growth will be sluggish GDP growth in Q2 was stronger than we had forecast and there is a good chance that growth picks up a bit in the second half of 2019. On that basis, we have revised up our 2019 GDP growth forecast from... 6th September 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Chancellor turns on the spending taps While the bulk of the extra spending unveiled today in the 2019 Spending Round had already been announced, its overall stance was a bit looser than had been anticipated. This could raise GDP growth by... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China fiscal stimulus not enough to boost prices China’s official and unofficial PMIs diverged in August. But both remain consistent with slower year-on-year growth in the remainder of 2019, which does not bode well for energy and industrial metals... 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (August) The latest survey data suggest that exports have continued to struggle but that factory activity was propped up by stronger infrastructure spending. 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI transfer raises more concerns on independence The RBI’s announcement this week that it would transfer a record dividend to the finance ministry this year has a number of important implications. On a positive note, it will help to strengthen the... 30th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily If Trump pivots to fiscal policy, bond yields could rebound We think that Germany’s Ifo survey deteriorated further in August (Monday) Euro-zone inflation probably remained subdued in August (Friday) Divergence between US manufacturing sector and real... 23rd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Germany’s fiscal policy unlikely to alter outlook for bonds The PBOC’s may loosen policy again as it launches a new loan prime rate Italy’s government is likely to lose a vote of no confidence on Tuesday Russia’s weak activity data in July probably pave the... 19th August 2019 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Javid to loosen fiscal policy, economy has poor start to Q3 It came as no surprise that Boris Johnson became the UK’s new Prime Minister this week. And in his first speech in Parliament on Thursday there was no sign of him rowing back on his campaign pledges... 26th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly US rates and Gulf credit, Oman tightens fiscal policy Central banks in the Gulf will follow the US Federal Reserve in cutting interest rates next week, but past experience suggests that this is unlikely to provide a significant boost to the economy... 25th July 2019 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Fiscal rules are made to be broken Any spending spree by the new administration will probably be accompanied by a rise in borrowing, which could breach the current fiscal rule, especially if there is a no deal Brexit. However, fiscal... 24th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Benefits from lower company tax rate would be small Australia’s corporate tax rate remains one of the highest in the world. However, the boost to GDP growth from lowering it towards the levels seen elsewhere would probably be quite small. 24th July 2019 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Budget deal removes uncertainty, but adds to debt risk The budget deal agreed by the Trump administration and Congress removes the risk of a damaging debt ceiling crisis in September and prevents a contraction in discretionary spending from October... 23rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update New Prime Minister: Brace for turbulence Despite his hard-line stance on the campaign trail, there is no way of knowing how Boris Johnson will handle Brexit once he becomes Prime Minister tomorrow. But it’s going to be turbulent and the... 23rd July 2019 · 4 mins read
