India Chart Pack Government bond yields likely to rise Local bond yields have dropped over the past few months as the Reserve Bank has continued easing monetary policy, but we think they will start rising again before long. Fiscal policy has been loosened... 23rd October 2019 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Fiscal stimulus urgently needed but unlikely We estimate that a fiscal stimulus equivalent to 1.5% of GDP would still be consistent with maintaining Australia’s AAA-rating. Unfortunately, fiscal policy probably won’t come to the rescue, leaving... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil: After pension reform, what next? Brazil’s pension reform bill should help to stabilise the public finances and lift a dark cloud over the outlook. The government has a long to-do list of further fiscal reforms, although the political... 22nd October 2019 · 13 mins read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Sep.) September’s better-than-expected public finances figures do not change this year’s overarching themes of higher spending and borrowing. Nonetheless, there is a high chance that the Chancellor will... 22nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon quickly approaching a crunch point The protests in Lebanon (and policymakers’ response) underline that pushing through the austerity needed to stabilise the public finances is politically impossible. With large debt repayments due over... 21st October 2019 · 4 mins read
Public finances in better shape than in most countries The Conservatives are sticking to their commitment to balance the budget if elected, but over the next 18 months the party’s deficit proposals look very similar to the Liberal’s. While the high... 17th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Slow regional recovery, Argentina headed for default After a weak 2019, we expect that growth across most of Latin America will improve next year. That said, our forecasts for the regions two biggest economies – Brazil and Mexico – are below consensus... 16th October 2019 · 27 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia and Turkey to recover, CEE to lose its shine Looser policy will support stronger economic growth in Russia, as well as in Turkey (so long as US sanctions don’t get much worse), in the coming quarters. In contrast, the economies of Central and... 16th October 2019 · 26 mins read
Japan Economics Update Muted price effect understates impact of tax hike At first glance, the impact of this month’s sales tax hike on inflation and so on real incomes will be small. Headline inflation will probably rise by only 0.4%-point in October. But that’s partly... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA to cut to 0.25% and launch QE The end of the housing downturn has reduced the risk of a recession and we expect GDP growth in Australia to edge up from 1.7% this year to 2.0% in 2020. However, that’s still well below potential and... 15th October 2019 · 23 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Tunisia’s election outturn threatens policy paralysis Tunisia’s new president will face the immediate challenge of a fractured parliament and, amid what are set to be arduous coalition talks, policy paralysis is likely to set in. The country’s large... 14th October 2019 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Slowdown delayed not averted China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But with the boom in property construction on borrowed time and headwinds from higher food inflation and cooling global demand likely to... 10th October 2019 · 27 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Further slowdown in China, but recovery elsewhere Regional growth is likely to remain very weak, with slower growth in China likely to offset a modest recovery in the rest of the region. China’s economy has remained resilient in recent months. But... 10th October 2019 · 49 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank to get no cover from fiscal policy Calls for any fiscal stimulus to support the Swedish economy are likely to fall on deaf ears, so the burden will continue to be entirely on the Riksbank. A combination of a dovish shift by the Bank... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Headwinds strengthening We still think that the impact of October’s sales tax hike on consumption will be smaller than after previous tax hikes. But the outlook for external demand remains poor and firms have become less... 9th October 2019 · 22 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ to cut rates more sharply than most expect We now expect growth in New Zealand to ease from 2.2% in 2019 to 1.5% in 2020. Along with a rising unemployment rate, weak economic activity will prompt the RBNZ to cut rates twice next year. 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
