Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hopes for additional fiscal stimulus dashed The economy is now getting support from all sides, with the RBA cutting interest rates, Parliament passing the tax cuts promised in the Budget and APRA loosening constraints on mortgage lending this... 5th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will an IMF deal solve Pakistan’s problems? The policy tightening and structural reforms that Pakistan has agreed to as the price of a deal with the IMF are likely to lead to a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the near-term but should also... 4th July 2019 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) India’s manufacturing PMI readings remained consistent with decent output in June but it is unlikely be a barrier to further policy loosening. There is a high chance that a looser fiscal stance will... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP Quarterly National Accounts (Q1 2019) GDP growth was unrevised at 0.5% q/q in the first quarter of the year, but that probably marked a temporary high as activity was brought forward ahead of the original Brexit deadline. Consequently the... 28th June 2019 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Tax exemptions, RBI minutes Ahead of the full budget for FY19/20 on 5 th July, the early leaks have focused on potential changes to income taxes. By themselves, these won’t have a material impact on the fiscal position. But they... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Further policy loosening on the cards Amid signs of a recent slowdown in economic growth, the Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates at a third consecutive meeting in early June, taking the repo rate to its lowest since 2010. What’s... 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Lebanon’s electricity reform: necessary but insufficient Reform of Lebanon’s state-owned electricity company, EdL, lies at the heart of the government’s efforts to tackle the dire public finances. But while this is needed, the approved measures are unlikely... 19th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What happens after IMF deals? With EMs such as Argentina, Ukraine and Ecuador having recently agreed IMF deals, and others (Turkey) still looking vulnerable to a crisis, this Update looks at what happens to countries after... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Should we worry about fiscal policy in CEE? Fiscal stimulus packages recently announced in Central and Eastern Europe won’t trouble public debt positions, but are coming at a late stage of economic cycles. As a result, they will cause macro... 18th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s IMF deal: end of term report Egypt’s IMF deal has proved successful in helping to repair the country’s balance sheets, but many of the structural constraints facing the economy remain in place and will be extremely difficult to... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Will Argentina default? One point being overlooked in the debate surrounding the sustainability of Argentine sovereign debt is that there is a significant risk of default even if an investor-friendly candidate wins October’s... 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S Africa: SOE worries widespread, but few pose real risks Many of South Africa’s state-owned firms face financial and management troubles, but most – like South African Airways – pose little risk to the wider economy. Eskom and Transnet are the only two... 12th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus How will the Bank respond to the next downturn? The risk of a recession is arguably higher in Canada than elsewhere and the low level of interest rates limits the ability of the Bank of Canada to respond. Even if the Bank utilises unconventional... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & tariffs, Brazil’s pension reform, Chilean rates Mexico has yet to strike a deal with the US to prevent tariffs being imposed on Monday, but one crumb of comfort is that (so far at least) financial conditions haven’t tightened significantly... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Why Italy cannot escape from its debt trap There is little that Italy’s government can do to prevent its debt ratio from rising. For a number of reasons, not least of which is its membership of the euro-zone, the three paths to debt reduction... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where are sovereign default risks greatest? There is growing attention on sovereign debt risks in some EMs. Vulnerabilities seem to be most acute in Argentina as well as in some of the smaller economies in the Middle East and Africa such as... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
