Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the fall in oil prices mean for EMs? The $10pb fall in global oil prices over the past couple of weeks will improve the terms of trade for major EM oil importers, such as India, and will help to provide some relief for countries with... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italy’s “fiscal shock” set to cause more problems Italy is on another collision course with the EU that looks set to push bond yields up and weigh on economic activity. 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update The policies of the 12 trying to get into Number 10 While the 12 candidates for the leadership of the Conservative party are divided over the best approach to Brexit, they seem reasonably united in calling for looser fiscal policy. That could give the... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungarian stimulus, Ukraine & IMF, Turkey’s double-dip The fiscal stimulus package unveiled in Hungary this week adds to reasons to think that the economy will grow more quickly than most anticipate over the course of this year. Meanwhile, positive... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB heading to Vilnius, inflation to drop back This week saw a fresh escalation of the tensions between Italy and the European Commission, and the publication of some fairly downbeat survey data. Combined with the very low inflation data we expect... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update New Finance Minister faces delicate balancing act Nirmala Sitharaman, who has just been selected to replace Arun Jaitley as Finance Minister, faces a delicate balancing act in her new role. On the one hand, she will want to display fiscal rectitude... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Modi sworn in, Finance Minister speculation Prime Minister Modi was sworn in for his second term this week, and one of his first key tasks will be to select a new Finance Minister after Arun Jaitley announced that he would be stepping down from... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Will Japan boost fiscal spending to raise inflation? Some commentators have proposed that Japan should raise public spending to boost inflation, which would allow the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates. But given that the economy is operating at full... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Lebanese budget falls short, more slippage from Bahrain The negative market reaction to Lebanon’s 2019 budget suggests that investors are coming round to our view that the government will need to pursue debt restructuring in the coming years. Fiscal woes... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Higher spending may provide a small economic boost Significant increases in operating and capital spending are a welcome takeaway from today’s Budget. But the economic impact is likely to be modest and the government is still expected to be a drag on... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Who is winning the trade war? With the trade war between the US and China continuing to escalate, a clear winner is starting to emerge: Vietnam. Since around the middle of last year, Vietnam’s exports to the US have shot up by... 29th May 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Weakest growth in a decade, further weakness ahead Growth slowed sharply in Emerging Asia last quarter, and is likely to remain fairly weak over the coming year, with looser fiscal and monetary policy unlikely to offset the drag from weaker global... 27th May 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Is the worst over for China? The domestic headwinds that have caused China’s economy to slow over the past year are abating thanks to the policy support that has put a floor under credit growth and fuelled local government... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fernández-Fernández, Brazil reform, GDP drop Investors have largely welcomed the decision by populist and anti-IMF former president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, to run for vice president (rather than the top job) in Argentina’s election in... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly PM Abe will probably press ahead with sales tax hike The Q1 GDP figures overstated the health of the economy and we expect a renewed slowdown in the second quarter. But with domestic demand still rising at a healthy pace and the unemployment rate at the... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer/Producer Prices & Public Finances (Apr.) CPI Inflation rose back above the Bank of England’s 2% target in April for the first time since December. And while we suspect that inflation is likely to remain above 2% for the rest of the year, as... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
