US Economics Update Fiscal boost not as large as headline figures suggest The $900bn fiscal relief deal agreed by Congress won’t represent as big a fiscal expansion as the headline figures suggest as it appears to mostly involve recycling the unused funding from previous... 22nd December 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Stimulus another reason for optimism about 2021 The additional $900bn stimulus that looks likely to be passed by Congress within the next day or two means that we are raising our GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 5.5%, from 5.0%. 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Withdrawal of fiscal support won’t derail recovery On its own, the draft budget for the fiscal year that starts in April points to a sharp tightening in fiscal policy. However, there are several reasons why the headline budget figures are overstating... 21st December 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia food prices, Czech tax cut, Turkey’s policy shift Measures taken by Russia’s government this week to try to curb the rise in food inflation are unlikely to have a major impact on monetary policy, but they do underline that higher social spending is... 18th December 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Policymakers will make or break 2021 2021 is bound to be a better year for the economy than 2020. How much better depends on what happens with Brexit by 11pm GMT on 31 st December 2020 and whether or not the Chancellor tightens fiscal... 18th December 2020 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Policymakers will make or break 2021 2021 is bound to be a better year for the economy than 2020. How much better depends on what happens with Brexit by 11pm GMT on 31 st December 2020 and whether or not the Chancellor tightens fiscal... 18th December 2020 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Fiscal policy in Sri Lanka, currency trouble in Thailand Although the crisis has led to a sharp rise in government debt, policymakers across Asia appear in little rush to tighten fiscal policy. The key exception is Sri Lanka, where a sharp tightening of... 18th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Vaccine offers hope, but challenges still lie ahead Daily new COVID-19 infections have levelled off or fallen in most parts of Central Europe and there are signs that activity has started to rebound. But the fresh rise in new cases this month in... 17th December 2020 · 16 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Budget deficit may narrow faster than most anticipate The fact that the government revised up its estimate for the underlying cash balance in 2020/21 by more than 1% of GDP since the October Budget underlines that the economy is recovering much faster... 17th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Go To Travel suspension will weigh on consumption PM Suga’s decision on Tuesday to halt the Go To Travel campaign for two weeks from 28th December may put the recovery in services spending into temporary reverse. It comes after authorities in Tokyo... 17th December 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Update Standing out from the 2021 crowd In contrast to the consensus, we think that the economic recovery in 2021 will be quicker and fuller, the Bank of England will continue to shy away from negative interest rates, the Chancellor won’t... 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Standing out from the 2021 crowd In contrast to the consensus, we think that the economic recovery in 2021 will be quicker and fuller, the Bank of England will continue to shy away from negative interest rates, the Chancellor won’t... 15th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ghana: fiscal tightening can’t be delayed forever Victory for Nana Akufo-Addo in Ghana’s presidential election this week increases the likelihood of fiscal stimulus in the near term, which would support the economic recovery. But the precarious state... 11th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rating downgrades & pushback by the RBNZ While the credit rating downgrade of Victoria and New South Wales is justified given the deterioration in their fiscal outlook, we suspect that the RBA will continue to keep a lid on states’ borrowing... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Year-end leadership forum to flag hawkish policy shift China’s leadership will gather in the coming days for the annual Central Economic Work Conference. With the economy now back on track, we think discussions will focus on the recent surge in debt... 11th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s election to pave way for fiscal conservatism Parliamentary elections in Romania that took place on Sunday look set to result in the incumbent centre-right PNL party forming a new coalition government. A new PNL-led coalition would probably... 10th December 2020 · 3 mins read
