India Chart Pack Borrowing costs will remain in check India’s 10-year government bond yields have remained stable at around 6% over the past month, taking the unexpectedly large jump in inflation in May and a more hawkish turn by the US Fed in their... 23rd June 2021 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (May) May’s public finances figures suggest the strong economic recovery is starting to feed through into lower government borrowing. This reinforces our view that the tax hikes and spending cuts that most... 22nd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombian fiscal can-kicking, Brazil electric(ity) shock Colombia’s government recently outlined plans for more moderate fiscal austerity, but this still looks implausible given the current political backdrop. Lingering fiscal risks will probably keep local... 18th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Focus The perils of deficit monetisation in Nigeria Nigeria’s government has turned to the central bank to plug ever larger budget deficits in recent years and policymakers are unlikely to kick their deficit monetisation habit, particularly if the... 14th June 2021 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ruble gains, Hungary policy rift, stronger CEE currencies The Russian ruble appreciated to its strongest level against the dollar since last July this week and the balance of forces now increasingly favours further gains, but a lot depends on geopolitics and... 11th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lockdowns and bond yields ease The end of the lockdown in Victoria is an upside risk to our forecast that consumption will be unchanged in Australia in Q2. Meanwhile, S&P upgraded Australia’s credit rating outlook but that has... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Debt risks building, but mostly a medium-term concern Growing political turmoil in Latin America over recent weeks has raised concerns about public debt, though vulnerabilities are most likely to crystallise over the medium term. Meanwhile, EM currency... 10th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update G7 tax deal encouraging sign for cooperation among DMs The direct implications of this weekend’s deal on global corporate taxation struck by G7 finance ministers will be limited. But the deal suggests that wealthy nations have found renewed determination... 7th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the outlook for EM monetary policy & LC bonds While we expect the yields of 10-year emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) government bonds to increase as the US 10-year Treasury yield resumes its rise, we think increases in yields will... 4th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Peru & Mexico elections, (another) Argentine default? A victory for left-wing populist Pedro Castillo in Peru’s presidential election on Sunday would probably send local financial markets into a tailspin, but we doubt that investors would have much to... 4th June 2021 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack The three-child policy: too little, too late State media announced today that China’s family planning policy will be relaxed to allow all families to have three children, up from the current limit of two. This comes shortly after China’s once-a... 31st May 2021 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Fiscal policy to remain loose for longer Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg noted in October that the Government would not pursue budget repair until the unemployment rated was comfortably below 6%. However, the unemployment rate fell much... 31st May 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Oil prices and inflation, fiscal support in Taiwan Fuel price inflation across Emerging Asia will drop back over the coming months as last year’s low base starts to drop out of the annual comparison. With large output gaps set to keep underlying price... 28th May 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Public Finances (Apr.) April’s public finances figures showed that the government’s financial position isn’t as bad as the Office for Budget Responsibility predicted only two months ago, reinforcing our view that the tax... 25th May 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s policy shift, Turkey’s tight fiscal stance Guidance from Hungary's central bank this week suggests that it is taking the fight against inflation much more seriously and we now think that a monetary tightening cycle will start over the coming... 21st May 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Wage growth set to accelerate in Australia April’s labour market figures confirmed that the withdrawal of the JobKeeper wage subsidy wasn’t as big a shock as many had feared. The continued tightening of the labour market should eventually... 21st May 2021 · 6 mins read
