A strong vaccine rollout in the Gulf, particularly in the UAE and Bahrain, and Morocco should mean that containment measures are eased soon, paving the way for sustained economic recoveries. But the rest of the region will lag behind, particularly tourism-dependent economies such as Egypt and Tunisia. Fiscal tightening will also act as a key headwind over the coming years and, overall, we expect that regional GDP will still be around 2% below its pre-virus trend by end-2023.
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