Europe Economics Weekly France delays pension reform; Swiss-US talks The narrowing in the spread on French government bonds over the past month may reflect the fact that France has avoided early elections for now and the latest economic data have been quite strong. But... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly MTBPS fallout, renminbi debt risks South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana couldn’t have wished for a better response from investors to this week’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) and his decision to lower the... 14th November 2025 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) We expect GDP growth to average less than 1% annualised over the second half of this year, with the unemployment rate rising toward 7.3% early next year. Core inflation is likely to remain above... 13th November 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: an opportunistic MTBPS South Africa’s finance minister used today’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) as an opportunity to spend a large chunk of a recent revenue windfall to boost the economy. But this is likely... 12th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What’s at stake in Chile’s election? The latest polls suggest that a right-wing candidate is likely to win Chile’s presidential election on 16th November, probably leading to more pro-business policymaking and a tighter fiscal stance... 10th November 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Bank Rate in BoE downside scenario looks more convincing The Chancellor gave the biggest hint yet this week that large tax rises are coming in the Budget on 26 th November. Our view that she will raise taxes by around £38bn, which would weigh on inflation... 7th November 2025 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Budget plays fast and loose with fiscal truths A deeper dive into the budget reveals a dearth of new investment, toothless spending cuts and an overreliance on private capital. We therefore still expect the Bank of Canada to be forced to cut its... 7th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Trump takes aim at Nigeria, build up to MTBPS Nigeria became the latest country to face President Trump's wrath this week. For now, there are reasons to think that any economic impact will be limited. But it’s another reason for African... 7th November 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Nov. 2025) If the Chancellor raises taxes by around £38bn (1.1% of GDP) in the Budget on 26th November as we expect, that may knock 0.2 percentage points off our 2026 GDP growth forecast of 1.2%. But it supports... 7th November 2025 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus How could the Budget influence UK housing? Tax rises of about £38bn in the Budget on 26th November, mostly for households and potentially on property, would be a headwind for housing activity and prices, particularly at the top end of the... 5th November 2025 · 16 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget 2025 Preview We expect the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, to raise taxes by about £38bn in the Budget on 26th November, which will trim GDP growth, weigh on inflation and contribute to more interest rate cuts. That is... 5th November 2025 · 27 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s fiscal consolidation faces big challenges Romania has seen one of the largest bond market rallies across EMs in the past six months, but we think a further sustained fall in yields is unlikely. A lot more fiscal tightening is needed to... 5th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi’s worsening twin deficits reinforce need for austerity Saudi Arabia’s twin budget and current account deficits have widened on the back of low oil export receipts and this trend is likely to continue over the coming quarters. While the adjustment to low... 5th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: narrower deficit means few fireworks at MTBPS The improvement in South Africa’s budget position and sharp fall in local currency bond yields mean less is at stake at next week’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) than there was at the... 5th November 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Budget big but not “generational” The 2025 Budget leaves the federal deficit roughly double its current size out till the end of the decade, but it will still average just 2.5% of GDP, implying the new measures hardly constitute the... 4th November 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Support for the auto sector must shift up a gear Ottawa will need to take evasive action to stem the gradual exodus of US manufacturers from the auto sector. While counter-tariffs and quota reductions will help retain production if US tariffs stay... 3rd November 2025 · 6 mins read
