Latin America Economics Update

Venezuela’s potentially messy sovereign debt restructuring

Venezuela faces one of the largest and most complex sovereign debt restructurings on record. A high debt ratio, a complex array of creditors, deep-rooted issues in Venezuela’s oil sector as well as...

13th January 2026 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Saudi borrowing plan, Bahrain’s austerity steps, KSA opens up

Saudi Arabia kicked off 2026 with its first debt issuance of the year. Like last year, we think borrowing will exceed the authorities' plans as lower oil prices lead to a wider budget deficit and...

8th January 2026 · 7 mins read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2026)

Soft overseas demand, the past rises in interest rates and higher taxes mean that GDP will grow by only 1.0% in 2026. The weakening in the labour market last year should continue to bear down on wage...

8th January 2026 · 1 min read

UK Economics Update

Four ways the UK consensus may be wrong in 2026

We think investors will be surprised by how far inflation, interest rates and gilt yields fall this year. That said, these forecasts could be knocked off course should fiscal policy not be tightened...

7th January 2026 · 4 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Dec 25)

While China’s growth picked up in November on the back of stronger export growth, the economy looks set to have expanded by less than 3.5% this year. Exports should continue growing next year, despite...

31st December 2025 · 0 mins read

Japan Economics Update

Government net debt set to fall below 100% of GDP

Japan’s fiscal health has continued to improve. While the expansionary measures taken by PM Takaichi mean that the budget deficit won’t narrow any further next year, it will remain very low. And with...

30th December 2025 · 4 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

2026 – Key themes and possible surprises

We think 2026 will be the year inflation finally falls to the 2.0% target prompting the Bank of England to cut interest rates further than most expect, from 3.75% now to 3.00%. This final Weekly of...

19th December 2025 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

MNB’s dovish shift, Russia & oil prices, Ukraine’s loan

The Hungarian central bank’s dovish communications following its decision to leave policy settings unchanged this week suggest the risks have become skewed to an interest rate cut arriving earlier...

19th December 2025 · 6 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Fiscal pullback weighing on growth

Fiscal spending has slowed sharply since October despite ample fiscal space in the current budget, suggesting that local governments have been failing to make full use of the available funds earmarked...

19th December 2025 · 7 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Retail Sales & Public Finances (Nov. 2025)

November’s retail sales and public finances data reveal some tentative signs of improvement, but both are coming too late to make much difference to retailers in the so-called “Golden Quarter” and for...

19th December 2025 · 3 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

New Zealand’s economy isn’t in the clear just yet

Following a strong rebound in the New Zealand economy in Q3, financial markets are increasingly pricing in the start of a new RBNZ tightening cycle in the months ahead. However, we remain sceptical...

19th December 2025 · 4 mins read

US Economic Outlook

AI investment boom to power economy

We are increasingly confident that the surge in AI-related investment this year marks the start of a multi-year capex boom. Even allowing for ongoing labour market softness that will weigh on...

18th December 2025 · 16 mins read

Canada Economic Outlook

Soft growth to keep Bank on pause in 2026

The labour market has bounced back from the US tariff shock, but uncertainty over CUSMA and lower immigration will hold back GDP growth, which we expect to average 1.2% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. Lower...

18th December 2025 · 13 mins read

Global Economic Outlook

Muddling through

The global economy enters 2026 under the influence of contrasting forces, which will result in moderate GDP growth overall but widening gaps in performance and policy. The economic benefits of AI will...

18th December 2025 · 45 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Update

Loose fiscal policy bolsters the case for RBA hikes

The Australian government’s mid-year budget update showed that efforts to rein in public spending remain few and far between. With the economy pushing up against capacity constraints, the case for the...

18th December 2025 · 3 mins read