China Economics Update China’s dovish policy shift may not be enough The readout from China’s Central Economic Work Conference provides more detailed forward guidance on plans to adopt a more supportive policy stance next year – there will be more rate cuts and a... 12th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Trump casts a shadow, fiscal risks to intensify Tight policy, deteriorating terms of trade and, in Mexico’s case, US trade protectionism will keep GDP growth in Latin America weak and below consensus expectations in the coming years. Fiscal risks... 12th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: RBA and RBNZ to walk different paths Although their recent performance leaves much to be desired, we believe that both Antipodean economies are on the cusp of a cyclical upswing. But while the RBNZ has ample room to support the recovery... 12th December 2024 · 20 mins read
UK Economics Update Three ways the Spending Review could affect fiscal policy With pressures on public spending continuing to grow, this has raised the chances that the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, raises spending further in her 2025 Spending Review. If she raises spending and... 11th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Growth to strengthen as Gulf opens up the oil taps GDP growth in the Middle East and North Africa will accelerate in 2025 on the back of higher oil production in the Gulf. The UAE will be the Gulf’s top performing economy and, elsewhere, we expect... 11th December 2024 · 22 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Overseas slowdown won’t derail UK economy Despite the deterioration in the global outlook, we remain optimistic that UK GDP growth will just about beat the consensus forecast over the next couple of years, as lower inflation and bigger falls... 10th December 2024 · 18 mins read
India Economic Outlook India Outlook: A tougher year ahead After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major... 10th December 2024 · 16 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Dec. 24) The Politburo has just concluded its December meeting, which focuses foremost on economic affairs. After 14 years of monetary policy being officially characterised as “prudent”, the meeting readout... 9th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romania election drama, rate cuts delayed across EE The decision by Romania’s constitutional court to annul the first round of the presidential election today after suggestions of Russian interference has been followed by a positive reaction in Romania... 6th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly French budget deadlock to continue Following the collapse of Michel Barnier’s administration, there is no realistic prospect of a stable government being formed that could address France’s fiscal problems. There is a risk that the... 6th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil overheating, Mexico’s minimum wage, Bonilla quits Data out of Brazil this week suggest that the strength of domestic demand is causing the trade surplus to erode, which goes some way in explaining the real's poor performance. But the more important... 6th December 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Mission impossible to mission plausible By shifting its target from achieving the highest sustained growth rate in the G7 to delivering “higher living standards”, the government has gone from what looks like mission impossible to mission... 6th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is France the new Greece? France is unlikely to have a government with a mandate to tighten fiscal policy anytime soon, so the risks to its bond market will continue to grow. Its debt dynamics are not as bad as those of Greece... 3rd December 2024 · 4 mins read
