Emerging Europe Economics Update Poland’s budget blowout: how big a risk? Poland’s public debt dynamics are more favourable than many of its peers. But the sharp widening of the budget deficit, coupled with the decision to leave austerity measures until next year and beyond... 14th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update What could policymakers do in response to higher gilt yields? Our base case is that a stabilisation and eventual fall back in gilt yields will allow the government to muddle through and wait until the next fiscal event on 26th March before making any decisions... 14th January 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling drama begins to brew Raising the federal debt ceiling this year will likely come as part of a budget reconciliation package alongside concessionary spending cuts given the razor-thin Republican majority in the House. As... 13th January 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Brazilian real bottoming out, but fiscal risks persist The Brazilian real plunged in 2024, due to fiscal risks. While we suspect that further piecemeal austerity measures will prevent another leg down in the currency, with investors’ fiscal fears unlikely... 13th January 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) While the economy lost all momentum at the end of last year, we still expect GDP growth to accelerate from 0.8% in 2024 to an above-consensus 1.3% in 2025. Admittedly, activity could be restrained if... 13th January 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update CDU Agenda 2030 won’t turn Germany around The CDU’s economic policy agenda, released today, clearly recognises the scale of Germany’s economic challenges and proposes some sensible policies to address them. But some of the measures are not... 10th January 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Gilt market is not in crisis, but it does cause problems This week’s leap in gilt yields creates more problems for the Chancellor and is an extra headwind for the economy. But it is not a crisis and the cause mostly originates overseas rather than being... 10th January 2025 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Update Gilt market and fiscal policy: your questions answered With long-dated gilt yields hitting multi-decade highs, we held an online Drop-In session on Wednesday to discuss the outlook for the gilt market and the implications for government policy and the UK... 9th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi debt issuance, Egypt-IMF, Lebanon’s new president Saudi Arabia kicked off the year with bumper international debt issuance and, with foreign investment remaining weak and budget deficits likely to persist, the government’s reliance on capital markets... 9th January 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update What taxes could the Chancellor raise to save her fiscal rule? We originally published an Update ahead of the general election on 4th July on what taxes the next government could raise. In light of the recent rise in gilt yields putting the Chancellor on course... 9th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Event US Drop-In: Inauguration Day special – Knowns and unknowns around Trump’s second term 1737471600 As the president-elect again prepares to take office, our US team held a special briefing to walk clients through what to expect in the opening phase of the second Trump admin
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) We are resending this publication because the heading of the previous version contained an error. With real household incomes set to fall again this year, the rebound in consumer spending will start... 9th January 2025 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What does 2025 hold in store for Brazil’s economy? Brazil’s recent period of rapid growth is likely to come an end this year. Sovereign debt concerns will almost certainly rumble on, but further piecemeal austerity measures will probably prevent... 8th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Could the gilt market upend Rachel Reeves’ fiscal plans? 1736348400 Rachel Reeves’ room for manoeuvre is rapidly shrinking as long-end gilt yields rise.
