Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP easing, China-Russia relations, Bulgaria protests The softness in the latest Polish inflation and wage data means we now think this week's 25bp interest rate cut will be followed by two more next year. Russia’s finance ministry announced it had... 5th December 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly Leadership signals fiscal priorities for 2026 Improving the allocation of fiscal spending, rather than significantly increasing the scale, looks set to be the government's priority going into next year. That's something that's clearly needed –... 5th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Upside risks in the spotlight ahead of RBA meeting The modest pickup in Australia's Q3 GDP belies the fact that domestic demand rose at its fastest pace in over two years. With fiscal policy set to remain loose and the private sector springing back... 5th December 2025 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s bumper PMI, Saudi Budget, MENA 2026 Outlook November’s batch of PMIs suggest that growth strengthened in the region last month, particularly in Egypt where the survey hit its highest level (outside the post-pandemic recovery) since 2015... 4th December 2025 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Strengthening growth and shifting alignments The Middle East and North Africa is set to record its fastest pace of GDP growth (outside the post-pandemic recovery) since 2011 next year. Continued oil output hikes and the switch on of Qatar’s... 4th December 2025 · 22 mins read
UK Economics Update The market consequences of Reeves/Starmer’s potential demise Although the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, succeeded in reducing gilt yields by 5-15 basis points and raising the pound by 0.3% after the Budget, the chances of a gilt market sell-off remain high... 2nd December 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook BoJ will bring rates close to neutral by 2027 The economy will continue to grow at a healthy pace, which should ensure that the labour market remains very tight. While energy subsidies and falling crude oil prices will weigh on headline inflation... 2nd December 2025 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly German pension policy: backsliding more than France? While much attention has been given recently to pension policy in France, it has gone almost unnoticed that the German cabinet has approved a pension package that could be significantly more costly... 28th November 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Chancellor puts MPs and the markets ahead of growth In this week’s Budget, the Chancellor pulled off the delicate balancing act of not upsetting Labour MPs, who wanted higher spending, and investors, who wanted to see fiscal discipline. But the... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Taiwan defence spending boost, Sri Lanka rates on hold Taiwan’s President William Lai this week unveiled a TWD1.25trn (4.5% of GDP) special defence budget but it is likely that this will be watered down by the opposition-controlled parliament. Even if it... 28th November 2025 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Nov. 25) China's economy slowed in October, driven by weaker services sector activity. And the rebound in the trade-weighted exchange rate looks to have weighed on exports, which contracted in y/y terms. We... 27th November 2025 · 0 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Dubai real estate, Bahrain-Oman public finances, Egypt rates The surge in prices in Dubai’s real estate sector appears to be prompting developers to take on debt to finance new projects. This echoes events prior to the crisis in 2009, but a re-run seems... 27th November 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Budget - Markets give the smaller-than-expected Budget the thumbs up After months of speculation and an unprecedented leak of all the details an hour before the Chancellor’s speech, the financial markets have given the Budget the thumbs up and the Budget doesn’t... 26th November 2025 · 19 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Budget (26th Nov. 2025) This is our initial take on the Budget based on the leaked details reported on the newswires ahead of the Chancellor’s speech and the initial market reaction. See here for our more detailed analysis... 26th November 2025 · 4 mins read
