Canada Economics Weekly

Canada Weekly: Tariffs cause headache for the Bank of Canada

Although the Bank of Canada acknowledged the downside risks to the economy from US tariffs this week, its accompanying communications suggest that it is cautious about loosening policy much further.

14th March 2025 · 7 mins read

China Economics Weekly

China Weekly: Investors giving up on further monetary easing

Two-year government bond yields in China are now 25bp higher than they were when the PBOC adopted an apparently more dovish “moderately loose” stance late last year. There have been no policy rate...

14th March 2025 · 6 mins read

India Economics Weekly

India Weekly: Three risks to the outlook

The big takeaway from our India Economic Outlook published this week is that the economy appears to have bottomed out and, with the help of policy stimulus, growth should pick up further over the...

14th March 2025 · 4 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Japan Weekly: Ueda cautious despite strongest pay hikes in 34 years

Even though this year’s spring wage negotiations resulted in the largest pay hike since 1991, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda this week sounded worried about developments overseas. That creates risk to...

14th March 2025 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Market impacts of central banks’ tariff responses

While today's US PPI print supports our view that the Fed will stand pat this year, comments from central bankers in Canada and Japan suggest they may have different views about how over how to...

13th March 2025 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

SNB’s last cut in the cycle

We expect the SNB to cut its policy rate by 25bp next week to take it to 0.25% in response to the very low inflation rate early this year. But we think that will be the last cut of the cycle, as...

13th March 2025 · 4 mins read

BoE Watch

BoE Watch: UK MPC not as dovish as March’s vote may suggest

The Bank of England will almost certainly leave interest rates at 4.50% at the policy meeting on Thursday 20th March and this might be the second meeting in a row when the vote suggests the Bank is...

13th March 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Egypt’s policy shift one year on

Egyptian authorities are on the path towards restoring macroeconomic stability and received a strong endorsement from the IMF this week. The next – and potentially more complex – phase will be...

13th March 2025 · 8 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Riksbank to hold, risks to the upside further ahead

The strong inflation data so far this year supports our view that the Riksbank has already ended its loosening cycle and will keep its policy rate at 2.25% next week. And we expect the policy...

13th March 2025 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Mar. '25)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Rises in oil output from OPEC+, starting in April will gradually provide a...

13th March 2025 · 0 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Update

A fresh look at the “turnaround EMs”

The policy turnarounds that have continued in Argentina, Egypt, Nigeria and Turkey have led to a sharp reduction in sovereign risk premia but have had mixed success in restoring macroeconomic...

12th March 2025 · 6 mins read

Canada Economics Update

BoC warns it must protect against tariff-induced inflation

Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25bp again today, it also warned that “monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war” and that it must guard against tariff-related rises...

12th March 2025 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.)

The decision by the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to leave its policy rate on hold today, at 5.75%, was widely anticipated, but we think that interest rates will stay higher than most others expect...

12th March 2025 · 2 mins read

US Fed Watch

US Fed Watch: Little chance of a Powell put as Fed stands pat

Comments from Chair Jerome Powell suggest the latest batch of soft activity data will not cause the FOMC to reassess its view that there is “no hurry” to cut interest rates again. Admittedly, some...

12th March 2025 · 8 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Bank of Canada Policy Announcement (Mar. 2025)

Although the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25bp again today, it also warned that “monetary policy cannot offset the impacts of a trade war” and that it must guard against tariff-related rises...

12th March 2025 · 2 mins read