Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (March 2025) The ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate from 2.75% to 2.50% today came alongside new language which shows that policymakers are becoming less certain about the future path of interest rates. Looser... 6th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Mar.) The communications accompanying the decision by the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to cut its policy rate by 250bp again today, to 42.50%, suggest that policymakers were reassured by the fall in... 6th March 2025 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus China's economic roadmap for 2025 The GDP target announced for 2025 suggests that policymakers are hoping to achieve steady growth this year, but we don’t think that the policy agenda set out today at the National People’s Congress... 5th March 2025 · 28 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) While the 0.1% q/q rise in GDP in Q4 of last year was stronger than we and most other forecasters expected, the combination of higher taxes for businesses announced in last October’s Budget, a... 5th March 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Germany loosens the purse strings The agreement on a reform of the national fiscal rule reached by Germany’s likely next coalition partners suggests they will implement a significant fiscal stimulus of perhaps around 1% to 2% of GDP... 5th March 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Initial thoughts on China’s NPC Chinese policymakers have stuck with an ambitious target for real GDP growth but have become more cautious on the outlook for nominal growth and inflation. And while they did deliver some increase in... 5th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Trump’s tariffs and the implications for Mexico The 25% tariff on all US imports from Mexico that came into force today will, if it stays in place, knock Mexico’s economy into recession in the coming quarters. A contraction in GDP this year of 1%... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Tariffs risk plunging Canada into recession If the US tariffs remain in place, Canada will undoubtedly fall into recession. The limited decline in the loonie so far suggests markets are still pricing in a quick U-turn from the Trump... 4th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Feb. 2025) The weaker-than-expected Turkish inflation figure for February, of 2.3% m/m, will provide some reassurance that the spike in January was a one-off. And it keeps the door open for the central bank to... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia’s house price slowdown has further to run The modest uptick in Australian house prices last month is unlikely to mark the beginning of a meaningful rally. With the Reserve Bank of Australia set to deliver a shallow easing cycle, housing... 3rd March 2025 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Bank weighing up strong GDP versus tariff threats There were mixed signals from the White House this week over whether the 25% tariffs on imports from Canada will come into effect as scheduled on March 4th. Providing that does not happen, then the... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Feb. 25) We expect fiscal stimulus to keep China’s economy growing at pace over the first half of this year. But as fiscal support fades and US tariffs start to drag on exports, we think growth will start to... 28th February 2025 · 0 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Germany defence fund, ECB cuts The special fund for defence proposed by Germany’s presumptive next Chancellor Friedrich Merz would secure funding for defence spending to rise from 2% of GDP to 3.5% and make budget negotiations a... 28th February 2025 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Tariff manoeuvres, RBI shifts priorities, the long-run view The formation of a committee to assess the scope of possible tariff reductions is another sign that PM Modi is seeking to make concessions to President Trump in order to avoid being hit hard by... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
