Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Unemployment needs to reach 5% to cool inflation We believe that the “narrow path” of returning inflation to target while keeping unemployment below pre-pandemic levels is wishful thinking. The Reserve Bank of Australia won’t bring domestic cost... 4th April 2024 · 15 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Case for cuts strengthening While the recent inflation data have strengthened the case for interest rate cuts, we suspect that the Bank of Canada will need at least one more month of similar data before it loosens policy. The... 3rd April 2024 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Mar. 24) China’s economy continued to recover in the first months of the new year. And we think fiscal support will keep supporting growth in the near-term. That said, the property sector remains a drag on the... 3rd April 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: easing cycle entering a slower phase The more cautious tone of the Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today confirms that policymakers have been spooked by the inflation surprises at the start of the year and has... 3rd April 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Wage data to watch ahead of the ECB’s June meeting ECB officials have stressed that evidence of easing wage growth will be key in determining the timing of the first rate cut. Accordingly, this Update assesses which of the euro-zone’s numerous wage... 3rd April 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus Excess Savings RIP We think that it is now time for the curtains to close on the so-called ‘excess savings’ debate. While unusually high savings accumulated by households during the pandemic helped prevent recessions in... 3rd April 2024 · 20 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM easing cycle to broaden out GDP growth across most of the emerging world will fall short of consensus expectations this year. But there will be key bright spots such as India and Taiwan. While disinflation is likely to proceed... 3rd April 2024 · 26 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The recent easing in price pressures and the Bank of England's new-found dovish slant has convinced investors that interest rates will be cut a bit further over the next two years. But we still think... 3rd April 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar.) The increase in Turkish inflation, to 68.5% y/y in March, will keep pressure on the central bank to hike interest rates further at its meeting later this month. We maintain our forecast for a 250bp... 3rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will start loosening policy in Q3 We expect the RBNZ to hold rates steady at its meeting next Wednesday. But with the economy in a deep slump and inflation clearly on the way down, the Committee is likely to tone down its tightening... 3rd April 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) The economy made a strong start to the year, but that was largely due to temporary factors that will soon fade. With spare capacity emerging, particularly in the labour market, downward progress on... 2nd April 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Germany State CPI (Mar.) The fall in CPI inflation in the major German states in March all but confirms that both German and euro-zone HICP inflation will come in lower than expected in March. This will please ECB... 2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) Australian house prices continued to pare their gains last month. And a further loss of momentum appears likely in the near term, especially given that the RBA is unlikely to come to the housing... 2nd April 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Banks set to become major holders of JGBs yet again Once the Bank of Japan starts to reduce its huge holdings of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) in earnest, we think that commercial banks will once again become major holders of JGBs. Insurance firms... 2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
