Latin America Rapid Response Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Mar. 2025) The Brazilian central bank made clear in the statement accompanying today’s 100bp interest rate hike (to 14.25%) that it’s far more concerned about high inflation than weakness in the economy. We now... 19th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed continues to project two 25bp rate cuts this year Although the FOMC stuck to its projection for two rate cuts this year, a growing number of officials share our view that further loosening is unlikely amid the increased upside risks to inflation... 19th March 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Policy Announcement (Mar. 2025) Although the FOMC stuck to its median projection for two interest rate cuts this year, some officials now share our view that further loosening is unlikely and we continue to think that Fed officials... 19th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lower services inflation to prompt more ECB rate cuts Euro-zone services inflation fell to a 10-month low in February and leading indicators point to further declines in the coming months. We think this will prompt the ECB to cut interest rates at its... 19th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkish lira plunges The sharp drop in the Turkish lira on the news that the main opposition leader, Ekrem İmamoğlu, has been arrested will complicate the central bank’s task of bringing inflation down and raises big... 19th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Feb '25.) The weaker-than-expected South African inflation figure for February, of 3.2% y/y, keeps the door open for the Reserve Bank to lower the repo rate by 25bp (to 7.25%) at its meeting tomorrow. 19th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will lift rates to 1.5% by 2027 With the Bank of Japan sounding a bit more worried about downside risks to activity from US tariffs than about upside risks to inflation, we’re pushing back our forecast for the next rate hike from... 19th March 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Update Overcapacity to keep China in deflation Deflation has reared its head again in China, underscoring the problem of persistent supply and demand imbalances. The limited extra support for consumption outlined at the National People’s Congress... 18th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q4 2024) Growth in Chile’s economy slowed to 0.4% q/q in Q4, but more timely monthly activity data suggest that the economy headed into 2025 with more momentum. This, combined with above-target inflation... 18th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: slowing but still a regional outperformer Peru’s economy grew strongly in 2024 but we think that a combination of domestic and external headwinds will cause growth to slow by more than most expect over the coming years. But it is still likely... 17th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Japan Outlook: Tightening cycle has much further to run While trade tensions create downside risks, we expect GDP growth to be around trend this year. And following another strong showing in this year’s spring wage negotiations, wage growth will remain... 17th March 2025 · 18 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Africa Weekly: SA’s Budget compromise, metals tariff concerns South Africa’s budget was finally delivered this week – but without the support of the ANC’s coalition partner, the DA. We suspect some form of compromise will be reached between the two parties to... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly UK Weekly: Public sector productivity, the BoE and tariffs (again) The slump in overall productivity last year (and the ongoing weakness in public sector productivity) suggests that at least some of the weakness in activity is probably due to lower supply as well as... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
