Tory election hopes fade with prospects for interest rate cuts “That makes it easier for the bank to postpone tricky decisions and wait for more evidence that inflation is indeed falling sharply,” said Ruth Gregory, deputy chief UK economist at the consultancy... 12th April 2024 · Financial Times
Canada Economics Weekly Budget unlikely to move the needle for interest rates Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s pledge to create the conditions needed for lower interest rates means the government is unlikely to announce much new near-term spending in Budget 2024 next week... 12th April 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC faces difficult choice as dollar strengthens The PBOC’s support of the renminbi against a strengthening dollar is resulting in a trade-weighted appreciation of the currency. This risks eroding Chinese export competitiveness and has a... 12th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Services inflation concerns, Peru’s pension withdrawal The downside headline inflation surprises from some of the region's major economies this week mask the continued strength in underlying core services inflation. Stubborn underlying price pressures... 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Bernanke puts the boot in, but BoE won’t project interest rates Ben Bernanke didn’t pull any punches in his review of the Bank of England’s forecasting and communications and recommended a full revamp of the Bank’s main forecasting model, using alternative... 12th April 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the UK heading for a US-style stalling in inflation? There are no obvious signs that the UK will follow in the US’s footsteps and that the downward trend in UK inflation will soon stall. But the risks are tilted towards inflation proving stickier and... 12th April 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro weakness won’t stop the ECB, Italy fiscal worries The ECB gave a strong signal this week that it will cut rates in June. A later start to the Fed’s easing cycle or further weakness in the euro are unlikely to deter it. Meanwhile, Italy’s latest... 12th April 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Bernanke Review of BoE Forecasting (Apr. 2024) Our initial impression of the changes to the Bank of England’s forecasting and communications recommended by Ben Bernanke is that they would go a long way to helping the Bank generate more accurate... 12th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (April 2024) Our Global Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data indicate some improvement in economic activity, particularly for industry... 12th April 2024 · 0 mins read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea keeps open the possibility of rate cuts The Bank of Korea left its policy rate on hold today (at 3.5%), but kept open the possibility of rate cuts later this year. However, with inflation concerns continuing to linger, we are pushing back... 12th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ still on track to cut rates in August Although the RBNZ toned down its hawkish bias at its meeting this week, markets seem to be worried the Bank will take its cue from the Fed and keep rates higher for longer. However, with domestic... 12th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly FX intervention looking increasingly likely With the yen hitting a fresh multi-decade low against the dollar this week, the Ministry of Finance is signaling a growing likelihood of intervention in the foreign exchange markets. However, the Bank... 12th April 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Singapore Monetary Policy Announcement & Q1 2024 GDP (adv) The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept policy settings unchanged today, as expected, but with the economy set to remain weak and core inflation on track to resume its downward trend soon we... 12th April 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Dovish ECB supports our view that Bund yields will fall back Today’s ECB policy announcement and press conference support our forecast for a June rate cut. Given that we expect more rate cuts than the money market discounts, we think that Bund yields will fall... 11th April 2024 · 5 mins read
