India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (August 2025) India is not anywhere near as dependent on final US demand as many other EMs are but a total tariff of 50% would be large enough to have a material impact on GDP growth. If it sticks, the resulting... 21st August 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Abdalla stays on as rate decision looms, PIF Annual Report Hassan Abdalla’s term as Egypt’s central bank governor was renewed this week which bodes well for the ongoing shift to macro orthodoxy and broader structural reform. First up on his agenda will be... 21st August 2025 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Fed Minutes (July 29-30) The minutes of the Fed’s late-July FOMC meeting reveal that there was no broader support for a rate cut beyond the two formal dissenters – Trump appointees Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM rates: where the market could be surprised Our EM interest rate forecasts generally lie on the dovish side. But, in particular, we think that investors are underestimating the scale of interest rate cuts that will be delivered in Brazil and... 20th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.50%, and the accompanying communications continued to highlight concerns about the inflationary risks stemming from the ongoing... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.) The jump in South Africa’s headline inflation rate to 3.5% y/y masked continued weakness in core inflation, which leaves the door open for the Reserve Bank’s easing cycle to continue. We remain... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Indonesia Interest Rate Announcement (Aug. 2025) Bank Indonesia (BI) cut its benchmark 7-day repo reverse repo rate by 25bp to 5.00% today and, with inflation subdued and GDP growth likely to slow, we think there’s scope for more easing over the... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Chinese government bonds’ fortunes could still turn We think Chinese government bond yields will be on the way back down before long, despite the PBOC’s apparent caution around rate cuts. 20th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (August 2025) The Riksbank left its policy rate unchanged today, judging that the recent deterioration in the economy does not require a policy response. We think that the economy is likely to recover in the coming... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Consumer Prices (Jul. 2025) While the rise in CPI inflation from 3.6% in June to 3.8% (consensus and Capital Economics forecast 3.7%) will fuel speculation that further interest rate cuts are off the agenda this year, the Bank... 20th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will cut rates to 2.5% by year-end When the RBNZ slashed rates by 25bp today, it effectively endorsed our long-held forecast for a below-consensus terminal rate of 2.5%. However, with the Bank judging the balance of risks to the... 20th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response RBNZ Meeting (Aug. 2025) When the RBNZ slashed rates by 25bp today, it clearly signalled that there is more easing in the pipeline. Accordingly, we’re more confident than ever in our below-consensus terminal rate forecast of... 20th August 2025 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2025) We now expect growth to average 2.0% annualised in the second half of the year, before slowing slightly in 2026. The recent slowdown in employment growth and limited pass-through of tariffs to... 19th August 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why is inflation higher in the UK than in the euro-zone? The recent strength of inflation in the UK relative to that in the euro-zone appears to be mainly due to rises in “regulated” (i.e. government-set) prices, tax rises, and rents. These upward pressures... 19th August 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Israel: GDP contraction should prove short-lived The unexpected contraction in the Israeli economy in Q2 amid the war with Iran should reverse this quarter, and so we think it is unlikely that the Bank of Israel will cut interest rates at its... 18th August 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q2 2025) The Chilean economy isn’t as weak as the slowdown in GDP growth to 0.4% q/q would suggest; there was a large drag from net trade while domestic demand remained very strong. This, alongside the... 18th August 2025 · 2 mins read
