Latin America Economics Update Chilean rates to continue rising The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) hiked interest rates by 50bps to 4.5% last night. With the near-term outlook for growth still very good and inflation likely to top 5% in Q4, further policy tightening... 13th April 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More policy tightening on the way in Sri Lanka The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) left its two key interest rates unchanged today, as was widely anticipated, but tightened policy by increasing its reserve requirement ratio. Unlike other central... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada in no rush to hike The policy statement from the Bank of Canada this morning signalled that it is still in no rush to raise interest rates. In particular, it offered no hint that a summer rate hike is coming, supporting... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update End of QE2 may not be a big deal for emerging markets The conclusion of the Fed’s second round of Treasury purchases is unlikely to be the major turning point for emerging market equities and bonds that many anticipate. Global financial conditions and... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to resume rate hikes soon Bank Indonesia (BI) left its reference rate at 6.75% today, as was universally expected. Nonetheless, inflation remains uncomfortably high while the economy is set to grow at an above-trend pace in... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s monetary policy tightening has further to go The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept its base rate at 3.0% today, as expected. The strengthening won is doing some of the heavy-lifting in terms of policy tightening, but the central bank will not want to... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB takes the lead, for now Last week’s decision by the ECB to raise interest rates before other major central banks mainly reflected its different attitude and approach to inflation-targeting. But we suspect that there were... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed still a long way from raising rates Recent events have left our forecast that the Fed will not raise interest rates either this year or next out on a limb. But we are sticking to our guns. After all, this time last year a fading of the... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore set for more policy tightening Singapore’s GDP growth probably remained strong in Q1, keeping overheating as the main policy concern. With headline inflation remaining well above the central bank’s 3-4% target range, and wages... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Nudging up our forecast for Peruvian rates The fact that the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) raised interest rates by 25bps last night, rather than the 50bps that had seemed possible, suggests that policymakers will continue to tighten... 8th April 2011 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update No rush to follow the ECB The ECB’s widely anticipated decision to raise rates for the euro-zone today does not make it more likely that monetary policy will be tightened in other major advanced economies any time soon. 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB keeping its options open Having raised interest rates from 1.0% to 1.25% as expected, the ECB kept its options open over the likely size and timing of future interest rate increases. For now, we still think that the Bank will... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Difficult decisions lie ahead for the Bank of Canada It is almost a foregone conclusion that the Bank of Canada will hold its key policy interest rate at 1% next week. More importantly, we think the Bank will refrain from offering material hints of... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan to "wait and see" There were no major policy initiatives from the Bank of Japan today and we do not anticipate any at the second April meeting either. This might bring the decline in the yen to a temporary halt, but we... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Weak economic news could yet stave off a rate hike There had been little to suggest that the Committee had altered its view since the last meeting, so the no-change decision today was of little surprise. However, the next meeting – coinciding with May... 7th April 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will higher rates do to the euro-zone? We doubt that the probable ECB interest rate hike on Thursday marks the start of an aggressive policy tightening. But if interest rates were to rise in line with market expectations, their impact... 6th April 2011 · 1 min read
