Emerging Europe Economics Update Interest rates cut again as Fidesz secures two-thirds majority The markets’ favourable reaction to Fidesz’s landslide election victory in Hungary will have been a key factor behind today’s decision by the National Bank (NBH) to cut interest rates by 25bps to 5.25... 26th April 2010 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Should the Bank of Japan be doing more? Tensions between the Bank of Japan and the government over the need for further monetary stimulus remain high. We can see a number of good reasons for the Bank to resist that pressure for a few months... 26th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam to wait and see The central bank in Vietnam (SBV) should set interest rates for May over the next few days and will probably keep the base rate on hold at 8.00%. Monetary policy has been effectively tightened in... 26th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines monetary tightening to shift gears soon The Philippines central bank (BSP) left its key policy rate unchanged at 4.00%, as expected, but a first rate hike is now close. We expect a move at the next meeting on 3rd June once the 10th May... 22nd April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rates will still probably move up by mid-year The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, as was universally expected. The economy warrants higher rates but the political situation needs to calm first. We are not as... 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Apr.) & Labour Data (Feb./Mar.) The minutes of April’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting showed that the Committee is still unlikely to alter policy in the near future. Meanwhile, despite the headline-grabbing drop in claimant... 21st April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia policy tightening to become restrictive in 2011 The minutes for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) April meeting, released today, have underlined yet again that the outlook for the economy is very good. The cash rate is virtually certain to move... 20th April 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bank of Canada signals imminent rate hike The Bank of Canada (BoC) this morning signalled clearly that it will begin hiking its key overnight interest rate at the next policy meeting in early June. We expect that rate to climb from 0.25% now... 20th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s Reserve Bank still has much to do India raised its two policy interest rates by 25bp earlier today, which was in line with the consensus view but was less than our forecast of a 50bp hike. Nevertheless, we continue to believe that the... 20th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand will probably reach a compromise soon The Bank of Thailand (BoT) is virtually certain to leave the repo rate unchanged at 1.25% at its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Economic conditions probably warrant a move up in the policy rate... 19th April 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil set to begin tightening monetary policy Interest rate hikes in the region are imminent. We think that a 50bps hike in Brazil this month is almost a done deal, with Peru is likely to follow suit in June. Meanwhile Colombia, and now Chile... 16th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Changes at the top do not change outlook for policy (Apr 10) Both Poland and the Czech Republic are set to announce new Central Bank governors over the coming months. But we suspect this will do little to alter the policy bias in either country. Poland will be... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India is virtually certain to tighten again next week Wholesale price data released today in India were not as bad as widely expected. Nevertheless, the only uncertainty ahead of the 20th April monetary review meeting is whether policy rates move up by... 15th April 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Turkey sets out its exit strategy Earlier today the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) outlined its exit strategy from the additional liquidity measures it introduced during the economic crisis. These include plans to switch to a new... 14th April 2010 · 1 min read
