China Economics Update What should we make of today's rate hike? The timing of today’s rate hike was a minor surprise but the bigger picture is that interest rates have played a small part in China’s tightening cycle to date. We think that monetary tightening over... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates close to peaking The accompanying statement to today’s Polish MPC meeting was more hawkish than we had expected but that doesn’t necessarily mean that interest rates have much further to rise. If, as we expect, core... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's monetary tightening will resume this year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 4.75% today, as was universally expected. Nonetheless, above-trend GDP growth still looks likely in 2011-12 and will eventually lift price... 5th April 2011 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Still not obvious that rate rise is needed There is little to suggest that the Monetary Policy Committee has shifted its position at all since its last meeting. A rate rise therefore does not look very likely. A May hike, coinciding with the... 4th April 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Reserve Bank of Australia's pause to continue in April The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to keep its cash rate on hold at 4.75% on Tuesday. Natural disasters, both local and overseas, have created an element of uncertainty and will probably... 4th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What will the end of QE2 mean for the markets? In contrast to the widespread view that Treasury yields will jump once the Fed concludes its second round of asset purchases, we think that yields could actually fall. It is even possible that the end... 4th April 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Rate hike unlikely to be the first of many The recent batch of reasonably encouraging data, coupled with a raft of hawkish comments from various Governing Council members, suggests that the ECB will go ahead with its plan to raise interest... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan rate outlook hinges on property Following today’s expected rate hike, the outlook for monetary policy in Taiwan depends largely on what happens to property prices. As things stand, rates are likely to rise again at the next... 31st March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Could the recovery cope with a rate rise? There seems to be an assumption that a modest rise in interest rates, of say 25bps or 50bps, would be relatively harmless for the real economy. But we think that even a minor policy tightening could... 30th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update ECB rate hikes won't prompt knee-jerk response in CEE The likelihood that the ECB will raise interest rates next month increases the chances that central banks in Emerging Europe will tighten monetary policy too. But the bigger point remains unchanged –... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The latest set of monetary indicators add to the reasons to think that medium-term price pressures in the economy are still very weak and that inflation will therefore fall back next year. 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What will the end of QE2 mean for Treasuries? The completion of Fed purchases of Treasury securities is only likely to result in sustained increases in their yields if it leads to a reassessment of the outlook for short-term interest rates... 29th March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan's economic reforms push back monetary tightening The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) left its policy rate unchanged at 14.0% over the weekend. The fiscal adjustment programme appears to be back on track and means that there is less urgency for SBP to... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly India and Indonesia central banks will continue to hike Mostcentral banks across the region will continue tightening policy settings thisyear, although the pace of policy normalisation will vary between countries. Wecompare the policy outlook for the... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Big downside risks to the Tankan The risks to the markets from the Tankan seem to be skewed in just one direction . If the results o fthe Q1 survey published on Friday are in line or slightly better than consensus, they could be... 28th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia keeps rates on hold, but policy still tightening Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to keep its key interest rates unchanged suggests that inflation concerns have slipped down the government’s list of priorities over the past few... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
