Latin America Economics Update Peru: Rates on hold as the dust settles from Humala's victory The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) unexpectedly held interest rates at 4.25% last night. Nonetheless, if it emerges over the coming weeks that President-elect, Ollanta Humala, will broadly... 11th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB signals July rate hike & stands firm on Greek default ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet struck a hard line on the euro-zone’s debt crisis today by both signalling an interest rate hike in July and again ruling out a debt restructuring for Greece. But on... 10th June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Low rates needed to get recovery back on track With the economic recovery still showing few signs of regaining momentum, the case for raising interest rates is looking weak. Indeed, we think that over the next couple of years renewed quantitative... 9th June 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to tighten again this year Bank Indonesia (BI) kept its reference rate at 6.75% today, as was widely anticipated. The central bank is still relying on rupiah appreciation to ease the blow from higher commodity prices... 9th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Interest rates hiked, BCB signals more to come The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 12.25% last night. With inflation, which exceeded the Bank’s target range last month, set to rise further, additional increases are... 9th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB trying to hold back the tide The European Central Bank’s continued opposition to any form of sovereign debt restructuring in the euro-zone remains a major short-term obstacle to plans for a Greek debt “rollover”. But the ECB... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish interest rates: time to pause The statement following today’s Polish interest rate hike was more dovish than in recent months, highlighting the risks to the recovery and the hope that front-loading monetary tightening will support... 8th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Is QE3 coming? The run of unexpectedly poor economic data has inevitably led to speculation that the Fed could be forced to adopt QE3. However, there are three reasons why we doubt that the Fed would be willing to... 7th June 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's cash rate still likely to be hiked this year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 4.75% today, as expected. The global economy looks to be slowing, but above-trend growth is nonetheless still likely in Australia and there is... 7th June 2011 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will commodity prices get a further boost from QE3? The dark cloud over the US economy has had a small silver lining for commodity prices in the form of renewed expectations of yet another bout of quantitative easing from the Fed and a lower dollar... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Threat of rate rise receding There is little chance of an interest rate rise this month. Last month’s Inflation Report did not suggest that an imminent rate hike was required. And the economic data have retained a fairly soft... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank Indonesia to bide its time, but not for long We have changed our forecast that Bank Indonesia (BI) will raise its policy rate on Thursday and now believe that the reference rate will be held at 6.75%. This is because headline inflation continues... 6th June 2011 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Green light for July hike ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will use Thursday’s post rate-announcement press conference to signal another rise in interest rates at the following meeting in July. But with growing signs that the... 2nd June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The latest monetary indicators show that broad money growth remains exceptionally weak, suggesting that the recent slowdown in the pace of economic recovery may be more than just a temporary soft... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand's central bank to continue raising repo rate The Bank of Thailand (BoT) hiked its policy rate by 25bp to 3.0% today, as expected. The economy grew at an above-trend pace at the start of the year, while price pressures should continue to mount in... 1st June 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada remains cautious The policy statement from the Bank of Canada this morning highlighted that ultimately it will raise rates at some point, this year or next year, but even then it said the extent of any policy... 31st May 2011 · 1 min read
