US Economics Update Fed biding its time The statement issued today after the end of the two-day FOMC meeting offered no hint that the recent signs of a renewed economic slowdown might tempt the Fed to launch another round of large-scale... 23rd June 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jun.) The minutes of June’s MPC meeting suggested that the Committee is moving even further away from a near-term interest rate rise – with more members starting to contemplate giving the economy extra... 23rd June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian interest rates still have further to rise The Central Bank of Colombia (BANREP) hiked interest rates by 25bps to 4.25% on Friday night. Although policymakers softened their tone from previous meetings, we still expect rising inflation to... 21st June 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More policy tightening to come in the Philippines The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) unexpectedly left its overnight rate at 4.5% today, but it did tighten policy settings by hiking its reserve-requirement ratio. Growth in 2011-12 looks set to be... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Food price shock still has a little further to run Central bankers – and some in the markets – appear increasingly hopeful that the recent spike in food price inflation, which has driven headline inflation above its target in pretty much every country... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB strikes a dovish tone As expected, the Swiss National Bank left its interest rate target unchanged at today’s meeting. With the Bank striking a slightly more downbeat tone in its statement and the Swiss franc’s strength... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank of India hikes again, but not for last time The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) decision to raise its repo rate by 25bp to 7.5% from today was widely expected following the further rise in inflation in May. We now expect inflation to peak at... 17th June 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB strikes a dovish tone As expected, the Swiss National Bank left its interest rate target unchanged at today’s meeting. With the Bank striking a slightly more downbeat tone in its statement and the Swiss franc’s strength... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed won't overreact to signs of slowdown We doubt that the signs of a renewed economic slowdown will prompt any knee-jerk reaction from the FOMC at its two-day policy meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (22 nd June). The accompanying... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean interest rates close to peaking The Central Bank of Chile (CBC) raised interest rates by 25bps to 5.25% last night but signalled that, while more hikes are likely over the coming months, we are now approaching the end of the current... 16th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The annual growth rate of money, including our own Capital Economics' measure of the M3 aggregate, continued to accelerate in April, mainly in response to the Fed's quantitative easing. But with QE2... 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka's central bank likely to tighten later this year The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) kept its policy rates on hold today, as expected. Core inflation is low, but current policy settings are very accommodative while the economy is set for another... 15th June 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly End of Korea's tightening cycle in sight The Bank of Korea's decision to raise its policy rate by 25bp to 3.25% on Friday surprised the consensus which had expected no change but was in line with our view. We expect another hike in Q3 and... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly End of QE2 won't drive Treasury yields higher With the end of QE2 approaching, it is notable that in the first quarter the Fed absorbed all of the net issuance of Treasury debt and then some. Nevertheless, we still believe it is the stock of... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Voluntary is the key "v-word" now President Trichet last week stressed again the ECB’s general opposition to a restructuring of Greek debt. But he left the door slightly open to a “voluntary” agreement in which bondholders would... 14th June 2011 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Board not yet ready to heed IMF advice This week the IMF added its voice to those calling for further monetary easing from the Bank of Japan. However, the Policy Board seems more likely to upgrade its own assessment of the state of the... 11th June 2011 · 1 min read
