ECB Watch A more positive tone, but tighter policy is distant The ECB’s decision to tighten future lending criteria and the fact that its bond purchases have ground to a near halt suggest that the Bank is again phasing out its unconventional policy support. The... 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Stronger data unlikely to prompt rate hike There are still few signs that Andrew Sentance’s view that interest rates need to rise is gathering much support from the rest of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). In fact, the minutes of the last... 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam's muddled policy-making gets what is deserved The Fitch downgrade of Vietnam’s foreign currency debt, announced today, was no surprise. Over the last six months domestic policies have see-sawed between fighting inflation and boosting growth while... 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand's central bank likely to pause early The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) lifted its cash rate by 25bp to 3.0% overnight, as expected. Exports should remain a bright spot but domestic indicators have been softer than anticipated by the RBNZ and will... 29th July 2010 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China’s impossible trinity China is seeking to rein in bank lending and hold to a conservative fiscal stance while maintaining rapid economic growth. It cannot do all three. 27th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers remain resolutely dovish Turkey’s Q3 Inflation Report confirms that policymakers remain resolutely dovish and relaxed about the inflation outlook. We now think that interest rates will stay on hold until 2011. Furthermore... 27th July 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India's monetary tightening still has far to go The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) increased its two key policy rates today, as was expected. The economic upswing looks set to stay strong and high inflation has now developed into a big political... 27th July 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s private sector takes the lead Korea’s GDP growth slowed in Q2 and is likely to stay on a weaker track in coming quarters. The recovery is unlikely to stall and we still expect the Bank of Korea (BoK) to lift its policy rate in... 26th July 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand rates to rise this week but a pause is close Economic growth in New Zealand will probably fall short of what the Reserve Bank (RBNZ), and the consensus, currently expect. The cash rate is virtually certain to move up this week but the tightening... 26th July 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Softer tone of recent data won't stop rate hikes Although the incoming data from Latin America have shown tentative signs that the recovery in the region is losing some of its steam, this is in line with our expectations and does not alter the... 19th July 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation pressures still thin on the ground (Jul 10) Most countries in the region are on the road to recovery, but the large amount of spare capacity created by last year’s recession means that on the whole the outlook for inflation remains extremely... 16th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Policy challenges for the new Government The new coalition Government has made an industrious start. But it still faces some major policy challenges if it is to achieve the multiple goals of sorting out the public finances, improving... 15th July 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippine rates to stay on hold for a while The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) kept policy rates on hold at 4.0% today. This was expected by the consensus although we had thought there might be a hike. The economic upswing should stay on track... 15th July 2010 · 1 min read
