Africa Economics Update Kenyan rate hikes possible next year The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept interest rates on hold today and, with inflation having peaked, pressure to raise rates in the near term has eased. But a large current account deficit that is... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s central bank still likely to cut again next year The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its policy rate on hold at 2.5% today, as expected. However, we still expect further loosening in early 2014, and think that rates will remain very low for the... 5th November 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch No change in policy ahead of Inflation Report With GDP growth in Q3 coming in slightly above the MPC's forecast and unemployment falling more rapidly than expected, when the Committee might reconsider the stance of monetary policy has continued... 4th November 2013 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Rising inflation behind decision to keep Egypt rates on hold The accompanying press release provided little justification as to why, having eased policy at its previoustwo meetings, the Egyptian central bank left interest rates on hold today. We suspect that... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
ECB Watch A softer stance With the economic recovery still pretty fragile, the euro climbing higher and inflation falling sharply, President Draghi may adopt a slightly softer stance at the ECB’s interest rate press conference... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Low inflation to delay Colombian interest rate hikes The monetary easing cycle in Colombia appears to now be over but, by the same token, interest rate hikes are probably still some way off. We expect rates to remain lower for longer than most expect... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Taper delay keeps monetary conditions loose With the Fed likely to keep the monetary taps flowing for even longer than previously expected, the world will be awash with liquidity for a long time to come. There are tentative signs that this is... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan in no hurry to ease further The BoJ today only marginally tweaked its economic forecasts, and took a sanguine view of the upcoming consumption tax hike. It was therefore no surprise that policy settings were left unchanged... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand to leave first rate hike until mid-2014 The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% today. There is little immediate pressure on the central bank to hike rates, but accelerating economic growth and... 31st October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed waits for the fog to clear The latest policy statement from the Fed today is remarkable for what it omits rather than includes. There is no explicit mention of the government shutdown or what impact it might have on the economy... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Monetary and fiscal outlook points to further yen weakness The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its current policy settings at its Board meeting tomorrow. But in contrast to the US Fed, the question is whether the Japanese central bank will eventually have... 30th October 2013 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch QE has costs as well as benefits The realisation that the Fed is likely to go on buying assets at its current pace for longer than previously anticipated has once again focused attention on the costs of QE. The more apocalyptic... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s easing cycle nearing an end Hungarian policymakers cut interest rates again today, but there are a whole host of reasons to think that the easing cycle is nearing an end. The economy is recovering and core inflation is rising... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India cuts effective policy rate, but also has an eye on inflation India’s central bank has used the scope allowed by continued exchange rate stability to further roll back liquidity tightening measures that were introduced in the summer. However, an increase in the... 29th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Inflation expectations pose little threat to guidance On close inspection, the recent rises in inflation expectations among households and in the gilt market appear to be nothing to worry about. The risk that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) abandons... 28th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican central bank signals end of the easing cycle The Central Bank of Mexico (BANXICO) lowered interest rates to a new record low today but its accompanying statement gave a heavy hint that this would be the last cut in the easing cycle. With the... 25th October 2013 · 1 min read
