China Economics Update How long will the Hong Kong peg last? The Hong Kong dollar peg was introduced 30 years ago this week. Although the peg creates a number of problems, it remains the best option. We expect it to remain in place for many more years. 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No rate changes in Thailand through to mid-2014 The Bank of Thailand kept its policy rate unchanged today at a low of just 2.50% against a backdrop of low inflation and weak growth. Although interest rates hikes are likely to start next year, the... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank allows the dust to settle Having introduced an entirely new benchmark interest rate at its last meeting and unveiled new lending facilities at each of its two meetings prior to that, the Central Bank of Russia opted to do... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore's outlook is upbeat, despite Q3 contraction Today’s GDP data showed that Singapore's economy contracted in Q3. Nevertheless, the outlook remains upbeat. As such, the MAS saw no reason to change its policy stance at its meeting today. We do not... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru in no rush to cut rates despite slowing economy Peru’s central bank (BCRP) extended its long pause on interest rates last night and gave few hints that a change of policy is on the cards. Following a recent downgrade to the BCRP’s 2013 growth... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack As good as it gets? Japan’s export-oriented manufacturing sector is benefiting from the recovery in the global economy and the weakness in the yen, but the signals on domestic demand are mixed. Business spending does... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC likely to have been united in standing pat With interest rate expectations dropping back a bit over the last month and the recovery continuing apace, today’s decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to leave policy unchanged was... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil interest rates heading back into double-digit territory Brazil raised interest rates by 50bps to 9.5% last night and the accompanying statement gave no hint that the recent falls in inflation might prompt policymakers to slow the pace of tightening. A... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update No rate increases in Korea anytime soon The Bank of Korea’s kept interest rates on hold today amid signs that the economy is slowly improving. Looking ahead, low inflationary pressures mean the central bank will be in no hurry to tighten... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed minutes point to December taper, but that was pre-shutdown The minutes from the contentious FOMC meeting last month reveal that despite the decision to delay the tapering of its asset purchases, which was described as a "relatively close call", "most" Fed... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Growth prospects improve, but crisis unresolved The European economy has shown further signs of recovery, with the euro-zone finally emerging from recession in the second quarter and other parts of the continent also faring better. But growth in... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
BoE Watch A quiet meeting in prospect Following a disappointing initial reaction to forward guidance, there could have been a case for the MPC to do more to support the recovery. But with expectations for the date of a rate rise having... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook China and India holding back regional rebound GDP growth in Emerging Asia over the next couple of years is likely to remain lacklustre by recent historical standards. The main reason for the subdued outlook is poor growth prospects in the region... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India cuts effective policy rate The decision by India’s central bank to cut the interest rate on its Marginal Standing Facility (MSF), which it describes as a “calibrated withdrawal of exceptional measures”, equates to a further... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery, but the right sort? The recent concerns about the type of economic recovery underway in the UK are overdone. While the recovery still faces some major challenges, we do not believe that an over-reliance on the housing... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Interest rates to stay low despite recovering economy Today we are publishing our latest UK Quarterly Review, in which we are revising up our growth forecasts. Stronger growth should not stop inflation falling back to target. It won’t prevent... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
