Following a disappointing initial reaction to forward guidance, there could have been a case for the MPC to do more to support the recovery. But with expectations for the date of a rate rise having receded and the recovery going strong, that seems less necessary now. Equally, with unemployment still elevated and the Committee’s ‘knockouts’ under no threat of being activated yet, the case for a tightening of policy looks weak too. So October’s MPC meeting will almost certainly see no change in policy.
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