Asia Economics Update New Zealand to move gradually from now on The Reserve Bank (RBNZ) earlier today lifted its cash rate by 25bp to 2.75%, as expected. The local economic upswing should continue, despite the increased external risks, but the recovery will... 10th June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Bank of Korea to hike soon, but not this month Korea’s central bank meets on Thursday and is likely to keep its policy rate on hold. The Bank of Korea (BoK) will probably wait for market volatility, stemming from an escalation in tensions with... 7th June 2010 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Rise in inflation fails to rattle MPC The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) appears, more than ever, to be in wait and see mode. A number of uncertainties – such as the severity of the upcoming fiscal squeeze and the impact of recent events... 3rd June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update The Philippines looks set to tighten in Q3 The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) left the reverse repo rate unchanged at 4.0% today, as expected. The economic upswing should hold strong in coming months while the policy rate looks set to remain... 3rd June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia still on track to hike later this year Bank Indonesia (BI) left rates at 6.50% today, as expected. The economic upswing will stay strong but the high level of the rupiah is helping to hold down prices. Nevertheless, inflation will probably... 3rd June 2010 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Resisting full-blown QE... for now After making radical changes to unconventional policy just a few weeks ago, further alterations seem unlikely this month. The ECB will give little away about the size and type of future bond purchases... 3rd June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand rates will probably move up in Q3 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% today, as was universally expected. The economy warrants higher rates but the political situation needs to stay calmer for longer. We... 2nd June 2010 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Canada first to hike rates in the G7 The Bank of Canada raised its key overnight rate by 0.25% today, to 0.50%, making Canada the first G7 country to see a rate hike. However, the tone of the accompanying statement suggests that this is... 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia’s central bank has more work to do The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held its cash rate at 4.50% today, as expected. The risk of an extended pause in policy rates has increased. Nevertheless, we still forecast that the next move will... 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam still likely to raise rates again soon The central bank of Vietnam (SBV) yesterday, as expected, announced that its key policy rate will stay unchanged at 8.0% during June. Nevertheless, the cash rate looks too low for an economy that will... 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly OECD wide of the mark on interest rates Our initial response to the OECD’s recommendation that UK interest rates should rise to 3.5% by the end of next year (“completely mad”) may have been a bit extreme. Nonetheless, it seems to neglect... 31st May 2010 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates going nowhere regardless of new NBP Governor The proposed appointment of Marek Belka, a well-respected, pro-market economist, as the new Governor of the National Bank of Poland is not yet a done deal. But regardless of who takes over at the helm... 27th May 2010 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil to hike again, despite market turmoil A clear divergence in the outlook for monetary policy across the region has opened up over the past month. Policymakers in Brazil have signalled that they will act aggressively to calm fears about... 25th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan unlikely to cut rates in 2010 The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today, as expected, left its policy rate unchanged at 12.50%. We forecast that rates will be kept on hold into 2011. The economic upswing should continue but inflation... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand started 2010 well but what happens from here? Q1 GDP in Thailand, published today, beat expectations but the most significant announcement in recent days was one from the Finance Minister, who stated that the government was “highly unlikely” to... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Vietnam outlook continues to improve The central bank in Vietnam will set interest rates for June over the next few days and will probably keep the base rate unchanged at 8.00%, rather than move rates up. The easing of credit conditions... 24th May 2010 · 1 min read
