Latin America Economics Update Inflation spike has further to run The recent spike in global commodity prices is a much bigger problem for policymakers in Latin America than it is for policymakers in the developed world. This is for two reasons. First, food and... 25th March 2011 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Economy fragile even before disaster struck Recent economic data releases have of course been overtaken by the tragedy of the earthquake and tsunami that hit Japan on 11 th March. This edition of our monthly chart book has therefore turned out... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More rate hikes on the way in the Philippines The Philippines’ central bank (BSP) raised its key policy rate by 25bp to 4.25% today, as expected. Rising food and fuel prices suggest that inflation will continue to accelerate in coming months and... 24th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBRT steps up pace of tightening Today’s decision by the Central Bank of Turkey to raise bank reserve requirements by a massive 400bp should help to calm market fears that it has fallen behind the curve in the face of booming... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Mar 11) The minutes of March’s MPC meeting show that most Committee members are still reluctant to start tightening monetary policy when there is so much uncertainty about the growth and inflation outlook. A... 23rd March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Nudging up our forecast for Colombian rates We are nudging up our end-year forecast for Colombian interest rates to 4.5% (from 4.0%) in response to the recent spike in global commodity prices. 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Will the ECB shy away from an April rate hike? Recent events in Japan and the sharp fall in euro-zone equity prices mean that an interest rate hike by the ECB in April is now less certain. For now at least, we continue to think that the Bank will... 21st March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Is BANXICO preparing to hike interest rates? The minutes from this month’s interest rate setting meeting in Mexico, released earlier today, were unambiguously hawkish. But while the chances of an interest rate rise in the next few months have... 18th March 2011 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Overheating concerns set to decline Evidence is mounting that China’s overheating threat is receding. The People’s Bank will continue to raise reserve requirements, as it did today, to ensure that bank lending remains under control... 18th March 2011 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: growth strong, but increasingly unbalanced Q4 GDP data show that the underlying pace of growth in Chile has started to ease. Nonetheless, it is the unbalanced nature of growth – and principally the strength of domestic demand – that is the big... 18th March 2011 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB interest rate hike not around the corner Despite growing domestic price pressures, the Swiss National Bank left its interest rate target at 0.25% at today’s meeting. While the Bank’s tone was a bit more upbeat than expected, the inflation... 17th March 2011 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Reserve Bank raises rates as core inflation rises The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked the repo rate by 25bp to 6.75% today, as expected. In response to the RBI’s concerns about core inflation, we have revised our rate hike expectations upwards to 7... 17th March 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB interest rate hike not around the corner Despite growing domestic price pressures, the Swiss National Bank left its interest rate target at 0.25% at today’s meeting. While the Bank’s tone was a bit more upbeat than expected, the inflation... 17th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed likely to complete QE2 as planned Despite the fact that Fed officials now believe the economic recovery is on a "firmer footing" and that surging commodity prices are putting "upward pressure" on headline inflation, it looks like QE2... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) Halfway through the Fed's second round of quantitative easing there is still no sign that it is boosting broad money growth. M2 is growing no faster than nominal GDP and our measure of M3, which... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What would ECB rate hikes mean for Emerging Europe? The likelihood that the ECB will raise interest rates next month increases the chances that central banks in Emerging Europe will tighten monetary policy too. But even so, we do not expect to see a... 14th March 2011 · 1 min read
