Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Gradual interest rate hikes to continue, for now Colombian policymakers have indicated that they expect interest rates to continue rising gradually over the coming months. As such, we are revising up our forecast. But with growth set to slow and... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official Manufacturing PMI (May.) A third successive pick-up in the official PMI provides further evidence that conditions in manufacturing are improving, thanks to warming foreign demand and a rebound in infrastructure investment... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are gilts priced for a slowdown? On the face of it, the steady fall in gilt yields this year suggests that markets might be expecting the economic recovery to lose some momentum soon or that safe-haven demand from overseas might have... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can the ECB weaken the euro? While the ECB looks certain to implement further policy action at this week’s Governing Council meeting – probably in the form of an interest rate cut and measures to stimulate bank lending – this... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Rate cut and lending incentives unlikely to be enough A small cut in the ECB’s main refinancing rate seems like a done deal this month and is likely to be accompanied by a reduction in the deposit rate to below zero. The Bank also seems set to offer more... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt rates on hold, al-Sisi election victory unlikely to mean cuts Although the Egyptian central bank left interest rates on hold today, there is growing speculation that, following Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s decisive victory in the recent presidential election, rate... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch All eyes on the FPC While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will leave policy on hold again at its meeting on 4th and 5th of June (announcement noon on the 5th), it is clear that some members are getting closer to... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Negative interest rates are less radical than they sound The biggest monetary policy event coming up is likely to be next week’s ECB’s policy-setting meeting, not least because we think the Governing Council will cut its deposit rate to below zero. If so... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil leaves rates unchanged but further hikes possible in 2015 Brazil’s central bank (BCB) called a halt to its tightening cycle last night and now seems unlikely to make any changes in interest rates until after October’s presidential elections. However, it’s... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rate cuts not the solution to Turkey’s competitiveness problem The Turkish government is becoming increasingly vocal in its demands for the central bank to cut interest rates, arguing that high interest rates risk making the lira overvalued which would damage... 28th May 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Higher inflation won’t prompt a shift in neutral stance We expect the Bank of Canada to retain its neutral interest rate bias in next week's policy statement. Although inflation has been firmer than the Bank had expected, due to higher energy prices and... 28th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian policymakers to keep monetary conditions loose Having cut interest rates earlier today, the National Bank of Hungary once again didn’t give much away about the outlook for monetary policy. The MPC appears to have become a little more dovish... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB holds rates steady, but door still open for future hikes The recent strength of the rand allowed the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to keep interest rates on hold today. But given that South Africa is still among the most vulnerable EMs to a slowdown in... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Peripheral markets move into the spotlight We anticipate that commercial property markets in the euro-zone will deliver modest gains over the remainder of this year and next as the underperformance of many markets in the region’s peripheral... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey cuts rates in spite of high inflation and external risks Following today’s surprise move by the Turkish central bank to lower its one-week repo rate, it looks like the MPC will continue to ease policy over the coming months. But given the country’s... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB lending scheme would have serious limitations The ECB seems increasingly likely to unveil a new scheme to boost lending to the private sector, perhaps as soon as its June policy meeting. We would welcome such a scheme, but its effectiveness will... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
