Asia Economics Update Rate hikes in Indonesia unlikely despite subsidy cuts Today’s move by Indonesia’s new president to hike fuel prices is an encouraging first step on the road to reform. Although inflation is now likely to rise sharply, any spike should prove temporary... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan rate cut not the start of aggressive easing The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut its policy rate by 50bp to 9.5% over the weekend, having been encouraged by a recent drop in inflation. But with inflation set to rise again over the coming months... 17th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are the MPC’s new forecasts plausible? There have been suggestions in some quarters that the MPC’s new forecasts for strong growth, low unemployment and below-target inflation push the envelope of plausibility. However, the MPC is... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Delay in sales tax hike no reason to cheer The question of whether to go ahead with next year’s sales tax hike will remain in the spotlight with Monday’s release of the Q3 GDP data, which Prime Minister Abe previously said would inform his... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Another interest rate cut still likely in Peru Interest rates in Peru were left unchanged at 3.50% last night but, with economic growth still weak and inflation likely to fall back into target in the coming months, we are comfortable with our... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A limp recovery The growing pile of cash held abroad by US firms, which has now reached more than $2trn, or 12% of GDP, is unlikely to provide much of a boost to the economy, not least because the prospects of that... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Further easing still likely to be needed The Bank of Japan’s decision to step up the pace of asset purchases at the end-October meeting has resulted in a sharp fall in the yen, which should lift consumer prices in coming months. What’s more... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank Indonesia to keep rates on hold well into 2015 Bank Indonesia (BI) left interest rates on hold again today despite the ongoing weakness of the economy. A large current account deficit and an uncertain outlook for inflation mean rates are likely to... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean interest rates to remain on hold until mid-2015 The decision by the Bank of Korea (BoK) to leave interest rates on hold today at 2.0% comes despite the recent weakness of the Japanese yen against the won, which had led to some calls for more rate... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The latest money supply figures have been encouraging, but we expect the slowdown in the housing market to weigh on loan growth in coming months. 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana rate hike more presentational than practical Earlier today, the Bank of Ghana raised its headline policy rate from 19% to 21% – the highest level since January 2004. As it happens, the move was more presentational than practical and is unlikely... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed running out of reasons not to hike rates With the unemployment rate now within a whisker of most estimates of the natural rate and more comprehensive measures of wage growth showing a clear acceleration, we believe that the markets are too... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is QE already priced in? Markets have probably at least partially priced in the prospect of QE in the euro-zone, suggesting that the ECB will have to unveil a bold programme to prompt a further significant market reaction. 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Crisis in Russia to weigh on regional growth Growth across Emerging Europe has slowed in recent months and we expect it to remain soft over the coming quarters. The economies of Central Europe will continue to be held back by weakness in Germany... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Nov.) November’s Bank of England Inflation Report gave another strong indication that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expects to keep interest rates on hold for a number of months yet and then increase... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q3 GDP data to show widespread weakness in the region The raft of preliminary Q3 GDP data due to be published this month is likely to be disappointing, showing a slowdown in growth across the region. While domestic demand seems to have held up reasonably... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
