Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC raises prospect of ending “forward guidance” The Polish MPC hinted at today’s post-meeting press conference that it may not extend its pledge to leave interest rates unchanged beyond Q3. While this could be interpreted as a sign that the MPC is... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deflation to trump Riksbank's household debt concerns The Riksbank’s report on household indebtedness underscores the magnitude of the problem and the need for it to be addressed. But we continue to think that the Bank will cut interest rates as... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Have the ECB's contingencies been met? The latest economic data have left the ECB’s two “contingencies” for further policy action – a worsening of the medium-term inflation outlook and an unwarranted tightening of the money markets –... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update QE taper does not explain Q1 GDP weakness A few commentators have suggested that the weakness in first-quarter GDP, which may even have contracted slightly, could be due to the Fed's decision late last year to begin tapering its monthly asset... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Global interest rates likely to diverge sharply With the world economy gradually recovering, it is tempting to assume that there will be a global monetary policy tightening cycle in the coming years. However, we think US interest rates will return... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian monetary policy to remain loose for prolonged period With inflation in Romania set to rise over the second half of this year, it seems unlikely that there will be further interest rate cuts. But equally, large amounts of spare capacity in the economy... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia more likely to cut than hike rates later in 2014 The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% at its meeting today, and re-iterated that it does not expect to make any changes in the near term. 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Rate hikes coming soon in the Philippines and Malaysia The coming week sees scheduled monetary policy meetings in five countries. Korea, Australia and Indonesia look almost certain to keep interest rates on hold. The decisions in the Philippines and... 5th May 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Phase two of forward guidance won’t hasten rate hikes The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision on Thursday 8th May will be the first to be taken under the second phase of forward guidance. But we don’t expect that to have much of a bearing on its... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Dovish tone to hint at action next month We doubt that recent events and data releases have been significant enough to ensure more policy action from the ECB at its May meeting. But developments in the inflation outlook and in money markets... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed continues with gradual QE taper As expected, the near-stagnation in first-quarter GDP growth wasn't enough to prevent the Fed from tapering its asset purchases by an additional $10bn, to $45bn per month, at the FOMC meeting that... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: interest rate hikes likely this year The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept interest rates on hold today but, given the country’s large current account deficit and the fact that inflation is likely to rise over the coming months, some... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ divisions underline case for more easing It came as no surprise that the BoJ left policy unchanged today and sounded confident about the prospects of hitting its inflation target. However, not all Board members are convinced that the 2%... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update National Bank of Hungary keeps its options open Having cut its benchmark interest rate earlier today, the National Bank of Hungary appears to be keeping all its options open regarding future movements in the policy rate. For what it’s worth, we... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Does it matter whether central banks publish minutes? A speech by Mario Draghi last week suggested that it is increasingly likely that the ECB will begin publishing the minutes of its Governing Council meetings in the near future. This would bring it... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Central Bank of Egypt holds rates as inflation outlook deteriorates The Central Bank of Egypt kept interest rates on hold today and, with the outlook for inflation deteriorating, they are likely to remain unchanged for the next six to twelve months. 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
