Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Tradables inflation is only half the story It’s odd that the financial markets placed so much emphasis on the rise in Australia’s tradables inflation rate in the fourth quarter of last year when this was more than offset by a fall in non... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: interest rates on hold, devaluation increasingly likely The Central Bank of Egypt kept its benchmark overnight deposit rate unchanged at 9.25% today as an influx of financial support has eased immediate concerns over the country’s external position and... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Inflation Report to signal rate expectations are too low The messages from this month’s Inflation Report will probably be pretty mixed. A lower profile for growth and inflation over the next few quarters should cement expectations that an interest rate rise... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rates hiked as economic outlook deteriorates The South African Reserve Bank has raised its key interest rate from 6.25% to 6.75% as inflation concerns outweighed worries about weak growth. We expect the bank will be forced to hike by another... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - RBNZ opens door to more rate cuts The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s hint that the weakening outlook for inflation means that interest rates may have to be reduced this year from the current rate of 2.5% supports our long-held view... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed doesn't completely rule out March rate hike The Fed certainly didn't rule out a March rate hike completely in the FOMC statement released today, but it was notable that it was no longer willing to describe the risks to the outlook as balanced. 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Did the Fed err in raising interest rates? The renewed turmoil in global financial markets together with the downward revisions to estimates of fourth-quarter GDP growth in the US have prompted claims that the Fed made a serious policy error... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Low underlying inflation to prompt more rate cuts We continue to believe that GDP growth in both Australia and New Zealand won’t accelerate at all this year from last year’s disappointing rates of around 2.3%. A further weakening in the outlook for... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Policy rates unlikely to fall any further The consensus is expecting further, albeit limited, monetary easing in India over the coming months, but we continue to think that the rate-cutting cycle has come to an end. The Reserve Bank of India... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q4) The rise in headline inflation in the fourth quarter of last year, to 1.7% from 1.5%, hides the more important easing in underlying inflation. On one measure, underlying inflation is now below the RBA... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Weak inflation means rates will remain low for longer Inflation across Emerging Asia remains very low, with consumer prices rising by less than 2% y/y in seven of the 14 countries we track. Two of those, Thailand and Singapore, are in deflation, while... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The growth rate of our M3 broad money measure slowed to a three-and-a-half year low of 4.1% in December, but the slightly narrower M2 measure increased by a solid 6.0% last year, while bank loans... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch What does the market turmoil mean for monetary policy? The turmoil in global markets since the beginning of the year is not, in our view, a sign that the world economy is heading for a recession, but the fall in oil prices will have a knock-on effect on... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Emefiele vows “unyielding” defence of naira Central Bank of Nigeria Governor Godwin Emefiele used the post-MPC meeting press conference to reiterate his commitment to retaining controversial FX restrictions. But with strains in the balance of... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Oil price fall dents hopes for stabilisation in Russia The latest fall in oil prices and in the ruble since the start of the year has dealt a blow to hopes that Russia’s economy would stabilise in the near future. Fiscal policy is likely to be tightened... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Virtuous cycle grinding to a halt With economic activity recovering and underlying inflation holding up, the recent strengthening of the yen and the plunge in the Nikkei are unlikely to force the Bank’s hand at next week’s meeting... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
