Africa Economics Update Concerns over policy credibility emerge in Nigeria Concerns over policy credibility in Nigeria have surfaced over the past month. The Central Bank’s (CBN’s) new governor Godwin Emefiele recently hinted at moves towards looser monetary policy, despite... 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update First rate hikes may be approaching, but policy to stay loose The growing likelihood that the first interest rate hikes will come earlier than previously anticipated will probably have far bigger implications for financial markets than for economic prospects. In... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia leaves rates on hold as another "gas war" looms The Central Bank of Russia was never likely to alter interest rates at its meeting today – while the economy remains weak, high and rising inflation limits the room for policy support. Meanwhile, news... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is the PBOC up to? Tracking the stance of the People’s Bank has become more difficult as it has brought a large number of policy tools into play. But the consistent goal appears to be to stabilise credit growth. 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian wholesale inflation spikes, but should ease ahead Today’s data show that wholesale price inflation in India increased sharply in May, denting the optimism stemming from the decrease in consumer price inflation in the same month. 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly MPC still likely to tread cautiously Mark Carney’s statement in his Mansion House speech on Thursday evening that “the first rise in interest rates …could happen sooner than markets currently expect” looked like a pretty plain signal... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing affordability a major problem While the Canadian government has been tightening its macro-prudential housing rules over the past five years, housing valuations have continued to inflate and household financial leverage has climbed... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed will focus on improving labour market GDP growth over the first half of this year could average less than 1% annualised. At the same time, however, labour market conditions have strengthened and price inflation appears to be picking up... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Interest rates on hold at 4% in Chile and Peru Policymakers in both Chile and Peru left interest rates unchanged at 4% last night and we expect above target inflation to restrict the room for rate cuts in the second half of the year. On balance... 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Rumours of QQE's end have been greatly exaggerated Even though the BoJ left policy unchanged today and provided no indication that additional stimulus will be forthcoming any time soon, we think that it is premature to write off further easing. 13th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Low inflation and strong won to keep Korean rates on hold The Bank of Korea (BoK) kept interest rates on hold today, as was expected given the reasonable economic outlook and subdued inflation. We think rates will be kept on hold for a while yet, with the... 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More rate hikes to come in New Zealand The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its policy rate by 25bp for the third straight meeting today, as it continued the process of returning rates to more normal levels. We doubt that a... 12th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch New projections may signal chance of earlier rate hike While the Fed is unlikely to alter its tapering plans or the main message of its forward guidance at the FOMC meeting due to conclude on Wednesday 18th June, its new economic projections may prompt... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia's financial stability risks can be kept in check The rapid rise in household debt levels coupled with strong house price growth is a key medium-term threat to Malaysia. With the economy now in good shape, the central bank (BNM) has scope to act pre... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May 14) The share of government bonds held by the BoJ has risen sharply since the start of QQE. Contrary to some suggestions, there are no compelling reasons why the central bank’s holdings can’t increase... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch “Third arrow” may trigger additional monetary stimulus The Bank of Japan will likely leave policy settings unchanged at the meeting that concludes on Friday (13 th June). We continue to expect more easing in October as it becomes clear that inflation... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
