Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC swayed by improving growth outlook The accompanying statement to today’s Polish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left unchanged, struck a dovish note. But it also stressed that the strength of the economy had eased... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Lower oil prices to tip euro-zone into deflation The recent further falls in global oil prices look set to push euro-zone consumer price inflation - already very low at just 0.3% in November - below zero in the early months of 2015. Provided that... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can QE revive the euro-zone? The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to launch a full-blown quantitative easing (QE) programme this week or in January. But the political and economic limitations on the policy’s size and effects... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update What low oil prices mean for sub-Saharan Africa Dramatic falls in oil prices have already taken a heavy toll on Nigeria, where the central bank was forced to devalue the naira and raise interest rates to slow the currency’s decline. As we show in... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will lower oil prices do the ECB’s job for it? The recent fall in oil prices will have some modest positive effects on the euro-zone economy. But it does not preclude the need for the European Central Bank (ECB) to provide more policy support. 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI holds fire, but paves the way for imminent rate cuts RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan kept both the repo and the reverse repo rates on hold at 8.00% and 7.00% respectively today, but the accompanying statement suggests that rate cuts are likely as soon as at... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia's first rate hike still a long way off The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) provided no surprises in its monetary policy decision today, keeping its policy rate at 2.5% and once again signalling that it has no intention of changing its... 2nd December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How will other European central banks react to ECB QE? The likely introduction of “full-blown” quantitative easing by the ECB may well put pressure on other European central banks to follow suit and introduce their own unconventional measures in order to... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Price of cocoa to fall further as the market remains well-supplied Despite concerns about a chocolate shortage, the world cocoa market remains well supplied. With a slightly larger market surplus than originally estimated, and plentiful stocks, we think there is... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch ECB, BoJ and People’s Bank to loosen policy further Three of the world’s most powerful central banks have loosened monetary policy in some form in the past few weeks and they all look likely to do more next year, particularly given the recent slump in... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Will higher interest rates choke off the housing recovery? Housing will be affordable and a touch undervalued even by the end of 2016, despite the prospect of interest rates rising over that period. The upshot is that the recovery in the housing market will... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) While recent very slow growth in broad money and bank lending is not as alarming as it may initially seem, it should bolster the consensus view on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) that it is still... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of the ruble’s latest tumble The sharp fall in the ruble over the past few days points to another large increase in interest rates when the central bank’s board meets next week. But the fact that the authorities have so far... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Indonesia CPI (Nov.) Consumer price inflation in Indonesia rose sharply in November on the back of the recent hike in subsidised fuel prices. Inflation is likely to rise again in December and then remain elevated until... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How will other European central banks react to ECB QE? The likely introduction of “full-blown” quantitative easing by the ECB may well put pressure on other European central banks to follow suit and introduce their own unconventional measures in order to... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: will the next move in interest rates be down? Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% today but, with the risks to economic growthskewed to the downside and inflation under control, we think that rate cuts are becoming... 28th November 2014 · 1 min read
