Latin America Economics Update Brazilian interest rates on hold until after elections Policymakers at the Brazilian central bank (BCB) left interest rates unchanged at 11.0% last night and we do not foresee any rate hikes until after October’s presidential election. But with high... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Lower interest rates won't prevent slowdown Canada's economy will struggle over the next two years due to a housing-induced slowdown that potentially could push the economy close to stagnation before the end of 2016. While export and investment... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada retains neutral bias The monetary policy statement shows that the Bank of Canada isn't concerned about higher inflation, since the recent rise is due to temporary factors, rather than improvements in economic fundamentals... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Low JGB yields not a sign of policy failure The persistently low level of Japanese government bond (JGB) yields is not necessarily a sign that“Abenomics” is failing. Indeed, a premature surge in borrowing costs could put the whole project... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s rate hike highlights fragile external position The decision by the National Bank of Ukraine to raise its discount rate earlier today serves as a reminder that, in spite of some positive developments over the past couple of months, the country’s... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: More interest rate cuts likely this year T he Chilean central bank cut interest rates last night and with policymakers clearly more concerned about weak growth than above-target inflation, we expect more reductions in the coming months. We... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy able to cope with higher US interest rates We do not think the global recovery will be derailed by tighter US monetary policy during the comingtwo years. This is because the Fed is unlikely to raise rates aggressively, other central banks are... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ still likely to extend QQE despite upbeat inflation forecasts It came as no surprise that the BoJ left policy settings unchanged today and presented upbeat inflation forecasts, but we still think more easing will be announced in October. 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Lending, credit (Jun.) & FX reserves (Q2) The rebound in credit growth last month has more to do with a weak base for comparison due to the cash crunch last year, than with the current policy stance. Meanwhile, with upwards pressure on the... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Can the economy withstand higher interest rates? The recovery should maintain its strong paceeven though interest rates look set to risefrom the record low level soon. The MonetaryPolicy Committee (MPC) is unlikely to beunder pressure from inflation... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Slowing Indian inflation brings rate cuts back onto table Inflation in India appears finally to be edging in the right direction, making it increasingly likely that the Reserve Bank (RBI) will cut interest rates sooner than most currently anticipate. 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore's rebound from weak Q2 will be muted Today’s GDP data showed that Singapore's economy contracted in the second quarter of the year. Although we expect some rebound over the rest of 2014, helped by recovering export demand from advanced... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada unlikely to take aim at rising currency While the Bank of Canada's hopes for an export revival could be thwarted by the recent resurgence in the Canadian dollar, it has few options other than cutting interest rates to try and turn things... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Getting back to normal Global growth is likely to accelerate a bit during the coming two years while inflation and interest rates should generally remain very low. The US and UK are set for a period of fairly rapid growth... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: interest rate cut unlikely to spur aggressive easing cycle We doubt that last night’s interest rate cut in Peru signals the start of an aggressive easing cycle. Inflation looks set to remain above target while a large current account deficit suggests that... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: strong peso to prevent aggressive interest rate hikes The latest FX intervention programme announced by Colombian policymakers is unlikely to reverse the recent appreciation of the peso against the US$. Accordingly, we expect a strong currency to distort... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
