UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Dec.) & Labour Data (Oct./Nov.) The minutes of December’s meeting indicated that the MPC remains focussed on the outlook for domestic price pressures. As such, the latest labour data showing that pay growth is building but... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai rates to stay low to support growth The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at 2.0% today against the backdrop of gradual improvement in the economy. With price pressures benign, we think the BoT will look to keep... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will ECB QE do to the euro? An ECB quantitative easing (QE) programme appears unlikely to be big enough to push the euro down sharply. But the prospect of continued stagnation in the economy and impending monetary tightening... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for Russia? Last night’s emergency interest rate hike in Russia has raised more questions that it has provided answers. Part of the renewed pressure on the ruble today stems from oil prices, which have fallen... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sweden gearing up for unconventional monetary policy Sweden’s central bank today pushed back the date at which it expects to raise its policy rate from zero and revealed that it was preparing unconventional measures to make policy even more expansionary... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Markets raise expectations of rate cuts The recent sharp slowdown in inflation, combined with dovish commentary from the RBI in its policy review earlier this month, have prompted India’s financial markets to price in the rising likelihood... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Falling energy prices jeopardise inflation target Policymakers will have been comforted by the jump in the Nikkei and the plunge in the yen since they stepped up the pace of monetary easing at the end of October. As such, they will almost certainly... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden gearing up for unconventional monetary policy Sweden’s central bank today pushed back the date at which it expects to raise its policy rate from zero and revealed that it was preparing unconventional measures to make policy even more expansionary... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How did our 2014 forecasts stack up? In our final Weekly of the year we will be outlining our key forecasts for 2015. But this week we take a look back at how we did in 2014. Our downbeat forecasts for growth largely played out, as did... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fed can't delay for much longer The outlook for real economic growth was already looking up even before the recent collapse in energy prices. We expect real GDP growth to accelerate from 2.3% this year to 3.0% in 2015, before... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Ind. Production (Nov.) & Empire State (Dec.) November’s industrial production figures build on the message from the recent retail sales data, with both showing that economic activity is unambiguously strong. This may well set the tone for the... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will the ruble’s collapse trigger capital controls in Russia? The renewed sharp falls in the ruble today will fuel speculation that the authorities could resort to increasingly unorthodox measures to help stabilise the currency, including capital controls. But... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Stress tests unlikely to prevent lending revival in 2015 The Bank of England will publish the results of its latest stress test of UK banks this week. While we would not like to wager that all eight banks will pass this year’s tough assessment, the lifting... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek crisis and falling oil price strengthen case for QE We disagree with speculation that the resurgence of the Greek crisis and the fall in the oil price have reduced the chance of quantitative easing. Indeed, we think that both factors have increased the... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key questions for EMs in 2015 The slump in oil prices and renewed falls in EM currencies over the past month have rekindled fears over the outlook for emerging markets. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we think... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Lower oil prices will hold back economy The slump in the crude oil prices to around US$60 per barrel is a serious threat to domestic business investment and future oil production. With the long-run breakeven cost of most oil sands projects... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
