Japan Economics Weekly Has Abenomics failed? To some, the continued fall in output last quarter is proof that Abenomics has failed. However, the economy has actually done fairly well over the past two years considering the strong demographic... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will QE in Japan and the euro-zone affect EMs? The Bank of Japan’s decision to boost asset purchases just as the ECB edges towards QE has rekindled concerns about negative spillovers from developed world monetary policy to the emerging world. The... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa holds rates, but signals tightening on the way The Reserve Bank of South Africa left interest rates on hold at 5.75% today, but Governor Kganyago made it fairly clear that he expects monetary policy to tighten next year. A sluggish domestic... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC reiterates concerns about inflation The accompanying statement to today’s Turkish MPC meeting, at which interest rates were left unchanged, once again suggested that the Council remains concerned about the poor inflation outlook. This... 20th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Fed's new monetary tools should ensure a smooth rate lift-off When the time comes next year to begin normalising interest rates, we believe that, using the interest on excess reserves (IOER) rate and its new liquidity management tools, the Fed will be able to... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will ECB or SNB purchases boost the gold price? Hopes that the European Central Bank (ECB) will include gold on the list of assets to be purchased as part of a programme of full-blown quantitative easing (QE) will almost certainly be disappointed... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack MPC may not wait as long as markets expect In the space of just three months, UK markets have pushed back their expectations for the first rise in official interest rates from February to November 2015. This may turn out to be an overreaction... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Nov.) The minutes of November’s MPC meeting struck a more balanced tone than last week’s Inflation Report and signalled that it might not take much stronger news on wages or growth for other members to join... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) Inflation in South Africa remained close to the upper limit of the central bank’s target in October. Although recent declines in commodity prices will put some further downward pressure on inflation... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Easing cycle not over in Chile Interest rates in Chile were left unchanged last night at 3.00% and, although policymakers continued to signal the end of the easing cycle, we still think that it has a little further to run. With... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Further stimulus still eventually needed The Bank of Japan left policy settings unchanged today as widely expected. While a more upbeat economic outlook suggests that additional easing is not imminent, we think that it will still eventually... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is QE in Japan and Europe good or bad for the US? Although the Fed recently concluded its quantitative easing (QE), the Bank of Japan has announced an expansion in the pace of its own asset purchases and the ECB is edging closer to full-blown QE. We... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The growth rate of broad money has eased, as the Fed has wound down its asset purchases and expanded its reverse repo and term deposit facilities. As the Fed expands the use of those liquidity... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How would QE in the euro-zone affect the rest of the world? If and when the ECB implements “full-blown QE”, there may be some positive spillovers for the rest of the world, but they would not be large. Countries elsewhere in Europe would benefit most from... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Where next for interest rates in Indonesia? Today’s 25 basis point rate hike by Bank Indonesia (BI) is a direct response to yesterday’s government decision to hike subsidised fuel prices. While we wouldn’t rule out the possibility of another... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Oct.) The slight rise in CPI inflation in October should be a blip in its downward trend. Indeed, falling import and commodity prices look set to provide timely support to real incomes at a time when other... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
