Latin America Economics Update Interest rates in Chile and Peru to fall further in 2015 Interest rates in Chile were left unchanged at 3.00% last night but, with the economic recovery expected to be slow-going and inflation likely to have peaked, we are sticking to our non-consensus... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Slowest regional growth since the late 1990s Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to slow to its weakest pace since the late 1990s next year. There are several drivers of this weakness, but a common theme is that the global commodities boom... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf economies take plunge in oil prices in their stride The slump in oil prices has caused the Gulf’s equity markets to tumble, but the region’s governments still seem to be unfazed. Oman aside, no country has announced cuts in public spending. And Saudi... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update MPC reforms unlikely to enhance effectiveness of policy While the reforms announced today to the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC’s) practices will improve the transparency of monetary policy, there is a risk that the potency of policy is undermined by the... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR delivers another large rate hike – more to come The 100bp hike in Russian interest rates today was the minimum the central bank (CBR) had to deliver given the recent slide in the ruble . With the ruble likely to remain under pressure and inflation... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update SNB will need to act against the franc very soon While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left policy on hold today, it reaffirmed its “utmost determination” to defend its ceiling for the franc exchange rate. It may introduce a negative interest rate to... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean interest rates to remain on hold until late 2015 Rising levels of household debt suggest further rate cuts by the Bank of Korea, which today left interest rates on hold at 2.0%, are unlikely. In fact, with GDP growth set to accelerate in the coming... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand set for prolonged rate pause The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept its policy rate at 3.5% today and suggested rates will be left on hold for some time. We doubt the central bank will raise rates again before Q3 of next... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB will need to act against the franc very soon While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) left policy on hold today, it reaffirmed its “utmost determination” to defend its ceiling for the franc exchange rate. It may introduce a negative interest rate to... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish CPI (Nov. 14) The renewed fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in November will maintain the pressure on the Riksbank to push back the date at which it first expects to raise rates from the middle of 2016 when... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What will be the fall-out from the latest Greek crisis? Contagion effects from Greece’s latest crisis have so far been reassuringly limited. But that may not last and the episode is a reminder that even those economies which have cut their budget deficits... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed to drop “considerable time” language The upcoming two-day FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday (17th December), should provide a clear signal whether our non-consensus call that the Fed will hike rates as soon as next March is... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Nov.) South Africa’s headline rate of inflation slowed slightly in November. We think that it will fall further in the coming months, but core price pressures are likely to remain strong. As a result, we... 10th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed should watch the NFIB not JOLTs The NFIB small business survey is more useful than the JOLTs survey since it tells us what is going to happen to labour market conditions rather than what has just happened. It suggests that payrolls... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Any rebound in house price inflation will be temporary Tighter supply conditions suggest that the moderation in house price inflation may be about to go into reverse. So, too, do solid rates of economic growth and job creation as well as tentative signs... 9th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How likely is a Ukrainian default? Ukraine’s deepening recession and the slide in the central bank’s FX reserves have raised fresh questions about whether the government will default on its debt. On the economics alone, we think... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
