Latin America Economics Update Aggressive interest rate hikes unlikely in Colombia We do not think that the Colombian central bank’s (BANREP) surprise decision to increase interest rates by 25bp to 3.5% on Friday marks the beginning of an aggressive tightening cycle. With economic... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch Spread of forecasts at least as revealing as the median The Bank of Japan will almost certainly maintain its current policy settings at the conclusion of the second of this month’s two Board meetings on Wednesday. However, there should still be plenty of... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank surprises markets with a rate hike An acceleration in inflation, in part due to the recent sharp drop in the ruble, caused Russia’s central bank to hike interest rates by 50bp today. Looking ahead, with inflation likely to remain high... 25th April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (national: Mar.; Tokyo: Apr.) While the consumption tax hike at the beginning of April lifted inflation in the capital region close to 3%, price pressure should abate in coming months as import prices have moderated. 25th April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand’s rate hiking cycle has a long way to go The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its policy rate by 25bp to 3.0% today, and made it clear in its statement that more rate hikes are on the way. Although the RBNZ’s own forecasts have not... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Short-handed Fed sticking to the tapering plan The two-day FOMC meeting that concludes next Wednesday (30th April) is likely to be a quiet affair for two reasons: The Fed made key changes to its forward guidance at the last meeting in mid-March... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC minutes (Apr.) & Public Finances (Mar.) The minutes of April’s MPC meeting suggested that the first rise in official interest rates remains some way off. Meanwhile, March’s public finances brought some fairly positive news on the speed of... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand to keep policy rate on hold Following a 25bp cut to its policy rate last month, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) adopted a wait-and-see approach today and kept the benchmark rate unchanged. With demand still fragile, we expect... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update ECB’s QE unlikely to be the panacea that markets hope The ECB looks increasingly willing to implement some form of explicit quantitative easing (QE) soon. However, the market impacts may be smaller and more varied than widely hoped. 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Five key questions on QE in the euro-zone The European Central Bank (ECB) appears finally to be seriously considering the option of implementing quantitative easing (QE). While we have long argued that QE in the euro-zone was a more likely... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar 14.) The expansion in the broad money aggregates has ground to a halt in the last two months. Bank lending is slowing now, too, even though financial conditions remain very accommodative. 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What to expect from Asia’s Q1 GDP data Most economies in the region are due to release Q1 GDP data over the next few weeks. OurGDP tracker suggests economic growth was broadly unchanged in Emerging Asia (excludingChina) from Q4. The Newly... 22nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Negative rates are no silver bullet on their own A negative interest rate on banks' excess reserves at the ECB might have some effect on banks' behaviour and at least prove that the ECB is prepared to follow its dovish words with action. But it must... 21st April 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada retains neutral bias The Bank of Canada retained its neutral rate bias in its latest policy statement and emphasised that, despite the lower Canadian dollar, core inflation will still take about two years to return to... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook West to outperform East The world economy should expand steadily in the coming two years, helped by an increasingly strong recovery in the US. However, while the euro-zone has stabilised, it is not growing fast enough to... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB belatedly waking up to deflation dangers Recent speeches from officials suggest that the ECB has finally accepted that the threat of deflation in the euro-zone warrants further policy action. But it is far from clear that any action will be... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
