Africa Chart Pack Inflation worries, Fed prompt hikes across Africa Over the past month central banks in South Africa, Ghana, Zambia, and Mozambique have all hiked interest rates. These countries’ domestic situations all vary, but each is facing a combination of high... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia well placed to weather Fed lift-off The parts of Asia that were hardest hit during the 2013 “Taper Tantrum” have seen their current account deficits fall back, or even disappear, over the past couple of years. This should make them less... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Slow, painful tightening cycle to continue The SARB’s decision to hike its key interest rate from 6.00% to 6.25% showed that the Bank is alarmed at the prospect of persistently high inflation in the context of disappointing growth. The... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update PBOC shifting monetary policy framework The main significance of today’s announcement by the People’s Bank (PBOC) that it is cutting standing lending facility (SLF) interest rates is that it is experimenting with a new monetary policy... 19th November 2015 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Commodity price slump produces mixed policy response The slump in commodity prices over the past year has meant central banks in net commodity exporting and importing countries have continued to follow different paths. Despite the hit to growth from... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rally shows EM markets can withstand Fed tightening The positive reaction by investors to the minutes from October’s FOMC meeting supports our view that emerging markets (EM) will fare relatively well in 2016/17 as US interest rates are raised. We... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan will still have to ease more While the Bank of Japan does not seem to be overly concerned about the recent weakness in activity, we think price pressures will moderate in coming months as spare capacity has risen. Accordingly, we... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has Italy really been the biggest beneficiary of QE? Recent suggestions that Italy has gained the most from QE paint a pretty bleak picture of the policy’s effectiveness. As it happens, we are not convinced that Italy has been the biggest winner. Either... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Oct.) South African inflation accelerated to 4.7% y/y in October in what we believe is the beginning of a sharp inflationary spike. While tomorrow’s rate decision will be close, we expect that the SARB will... 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: CBK holds rates, hike still likely in Q1 While the Central Bank of Kenya held its key interest rate at 11.50% today, we expect that the Bank will be forced to raise rates by 100bp in early 2016 as inflation picks up and Fed tightening puts... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) There is now clear evidence of an acceleration in core services price inflation, which hit a six-year high in October. That acceleration has been partly offset by the deflationary impact of the... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook MPC unlikely to wait as long as markets think Financial markets still do not expect interest rates to rise until the end of 2016. While we agree that interest rates will rise very slowly, we expect the first rise to come sooner, probably in the... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ still likely to step up pace of easing The renewed widening in spare capacity last quarter suggests that underlying inflation will start to moderate before long. We therefore still think that more easing will eventually be required, with... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack More positives than negatives in October data The latest round of Chinese data was met with plenty of gloomy headlines. We think these were overdone. The cloud over China’s economy may not have lifted but there were more positives than negatives... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Bank of Ghana doubles down on policy tightening The Bank of Ghana’s surprise interest rate hike reflects fears that above-target inflation is becoming entrenched. Tight monetary policy will be painful, but the Bank provided the first hint that... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What to expect from the G20 Antalya summit The annual G20 leaders’ summit, to be held in Turkey on 15-16 th November, should be less acrimonious than many previous gatherings. Tensions over exchange rate policy, global imbalances, fiscal and... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
