UK Economic Outlook Will the recovery fizzle out in 2015? While the UK’s economic recovery has shown some signs of flagging recently, we think its best days may still lie ahead. Admittedly, it has depended on some unsustainable sources and the general... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt’s economy comes back into the spotlight After a prolonged period of exchange rate stability, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) loosened its grip on the pound this month, and the currency has since fallen by 3.5% against the US dollar. The CBE... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan's rate cut likely to be the last for some time The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut its policy rate by 100bp to 8.5%, the lowest since 2005, over the weekend. Although inflation and money supply growth have both slowed sharply in recent months, we... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Further rate cuts possible, but won't help economy much The Bank of Canada's surprise quarter point rate cut to 0.75% last week, which came in response to the collapse in world oil prices, will only have a small positive impact on the economy. Unless oil... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices finding a floor as precious metals rebound The European Central Bank’s decision to launch a large-scale programme of government bond purchases under quantitative easing (QE) is unlikely to provide a major boost to the prices of global... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Plunge in oil prices to transform global trade balances The collapse in oil prices is likely to have a much larger impact on world trade than the depreciation of the euro – even if yesterday’s decision by the ECB to launch “full-blown QE” leads to further... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery set to strengthen in 2015 The consumer recovery looks set for another robust year of growth in 2015. Indeed, there are a number of factors which could mean that spending growth accelerates. For a start, the halving in the oil... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Two cheers for the ECB The ECB’s Governing Council deserves credit for meeting the demandingly high level of expectations with last week’s announcement of a quantitative easing programme worth at least €1trn. The size and... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update ECB QE provides modest bump to markets The ECB’s larger-than-expected quantitative easing programme has led to a rally in Central European equities and currencies, although this hasn’t been substantial. Meanwhile, the yields on Ukrainian... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Euro-zone QE largely positive for UK Anything that kick-starts the UK’s biggest trading partner clearly has the potential to be good news this side of the Channel too. That said, the main channel through which we think QE will work in... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will Greece’s election be more important for EZ bonds than QE? While the ECB’s announcement of a bolder-than-expected programme of quantitative easing (QE) has driven the spreads of troubled sovereign bonds even lower, we are sceptical that this will last given... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed's patient approach at odds with incoming data While the strength of real economic growth and employment suggest that the Fed should begin to raise interest rates very soon, the mixed news on wages, the lack of any pick-up in core inflation and... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Banxico can cut interest rates even as the Fed begins to hike We think the prevailing view that close economic ties with the US will force Mexico to raise interest rates if, as expected, the Fed starts to tighten later this year is wrong. Indeed, with lower oil... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The implications of King Abdullah’s passing The passing away of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah has raised concerns about the issue of succession and whether this might lead to disruptions to policymaking in the Kingdom. The key point, though, is... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) Following stronger-than-expected industrial output growth for December, today's flash manufacturing PMI reading provides a further sign that, although the economy continues to face headwinds from a... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q4 Preliminary) Today's advance estimate suggests Korea's economy ended 2014 on a soft note, with growth slowing to a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% q/q in Q4 from 0.9% the quarter before. However, growth should rebound in... 23rd January 2015 · 1 min read
