ECB Watch ECB to hint strongly at QE and ultimately deliver The ECB finally seems to be facing facts, withPresident Mario Draghi conceding at Jackson Holethat the economy is too weak and that inflationexpectations have dropped. We do not expect anyaction this... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Growth in the Philippines to accelerate further GDP growth in the Philippines accelerated in the second quarter of the year, due to a strong contribution from net exports. Looking ahead, prospects for both exports and domestic demand look healthy... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Export rebound won't prompt a shift in neutral stance We expect the Bank of Canada to retain its neutral interest rate bias in next week's policy statement. Although exports have rebounded surprisingly well, the Bank's Governor doesn't seem convinced... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers too sanguine on external vulnerabilities The decision by Turkey’s central bank to cut its overnight lending rate, which forms the upper bound of the corridor in which market rates are allowed to fluctuate, suggests that it is becoming less... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch What did we learn from Jackson Hole? Last week’s gathering of central bankers at Jackson Hole served to underline the gulf between labour market conditions in the major advanced economies. We suspect that these differences will lead to a... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Further ECB easing could see Bund yields rebound The weakness of the euro-zone economy and the persistent threat of deflation should keep German government bond (Bund) yields relatively low. However, any scaling back of fiscal austerity and the... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB finally facing facts President Draghi’s comments at Jackson Hole supported our long-held view that the ECB will take theplunge into full-blown quantitative easing, probably around the turn of the year. 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen stands her ground on slack If the release of the minutes of July’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday suggested that the Fed had takentwo steps closer to raising interest rates, then today’s speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen at Jackson... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the rebels muster a majority soon? Past experience suggests that the emergence of a minority vote to raise interest rates at August’s MPC meeting is unlikely to have brought the first rate hike any closer. For a start, minority votes... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed moving closer to rate hike The minutes of the FOMC meeting that took place at the end of July suggest that the Fed has takenanother step closer towards raising interest rates. This is consistent with our view that “lift-off”... 21st August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets unfazed by split MPC vote The frequently changing tone of the MPC’s communications has continued to buffet UK markets.However, the net effect of the dovish Inflation Report, the Governor’s more hawkish press commentslast... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The recent rapid rise in bank loans, which is partly being driven by auto loans, is not a cause for concern and instead is a sign that the economy is becoming stronger. 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions still loose Global monetary conditions have remained highly accommodative even though theUS Fed is now just a couple of months away from completing QE3. The latest senior loan officer surveys show that the demand... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack CEE recovery loses steam The raft of second quarter GDP data released in Central and South Eastern Europe this month showed that growth eased across much of the region. It’s tempting to interpret this as a sign that the... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sedlabanki hints that rate hikes will soon be needed Iceland’s central bank kept its main interest rate unchanged at 6% at its meeting today but hintedstrongly that rates will need to rise soon. We continue to think that the Sedlabanki will raise... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Glimmers of hope for reform of South Africa’s labour market South Africa’s labour market rigidities have been a key constraint on economic growth over the past few years, but some recent developments have given glimmers of hope that much-needed reform can be... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
