Asia Economics Update Interest rates to remain low in Thailand for some time yet With the economy starting to show some tentative signs of recovery, the Bank of Thailand (BoT) decided to leave interest rates on hold at 1.50% today. Looking ahead, with inflation likely to remain... 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland raises rates and tightening cycle not yet over Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to raise its key interest rates by 25bp does not mark theend of its tightening cycle. A further rate rise is likely at the next meeting in December. 4th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The implications for China of deposit rate liberalisation When the PBOC cut benchmark interest rates late last month, it also removed the regulatory ceiling on banks’ deposit rates. This final step in liberalising interest rates came sooner than many had... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Zambia: Currency crisis prompts sharp rate hike The Bank of Zambia’s decision to hike rates by 300bps was a predictable response to last month’s inflation surge. And with the currency likely to remain under pressure, further hikes remain possible. 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Oct.) On the face of it, the fall in Turkish inflation last month to a weaker-than-expected 7.6% y/y looks encouraging. However, this masks the fact that core inflation rose to its highest rate in almost a... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Low inflation will soon prompt RBA to cut again Although the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) once again decided to leave interest rates on hold at 2.0%, the new line in the statement that "the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further... 3rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further interest rates hikes likely in Colombia The decision by Colombia’s central bank to hike interest rates by more than expected was a move partly designed to clamp down on a recent surge in inflation but also to maintain its credibility in the... 2nd November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Consumer Prices, Household Spending (Sep.) The renewed rise in inflation excl. fresh food and energy in September would provide a reason for the Bank of Japan to leave policy settings unchanged later today. But the rebound in underlying... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed still likely to delay first rate hike The Fed clearly wanted to signal last week that a rate hike in December was a realistic possibility but, on balance, we still anticipate that it will be delayed until early next year. It’s recently... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Fed tightening wouldn’t let the ECB or BoJ off the hook Some commentators have suggested that the prospect of an earlier rate hike from the Fed and the resulting appreciation of the US dollar will significantly reduce the pressure on the ECB and BoJ to... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets pressure ECB to deliver Policymakers at the ECB have seemingly been priming the markets for additional stimulus to be announced in December. With some form of easing now priced into the market, the Bank is under pressure to... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Mr Osborne’s tax credit options Mr Osborne has various options to soften the impact of his cuts in tax credits, but all of them will cost him some money. Admittedly, this might “only” be a couple of billion for a couple of years... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Credit slowdown has further to run Credit growth has continued to weaken in most of the countries which we have previously highlighted as being most at risk of a crisis. The two exceptions are China and Vietnam. Although an... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank opens door to rate cuts The Russian central bank kept its benchmark interest rate on hold today, but there was a clear shift in tone in the accompanying statement, suggesting that the MPC plans to resume the easing cycle... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) While the euro-zone avoided a second straight month of falling prices in October, the absence of inflation in the region keeps the pressure firmly on the ECB to expand its QE programme in December. 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Yen still set to fall further as monetary policies diverge Japan’s economy probably shrank yet again last quarter, resulting in a renewed increase in spare capacity. With the outlook for growth and inflation both worse than policymakers predict, we continue... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
