UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Aug.) The minutes of August’s MPC meeting, revealing the first split interest rate vote since July 2011, indicate that a 2014 rate hike cannot be ruled out. But the low inflation outlook suggests the odds... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update An anatomy of the EM slowdown Despite the recent attention given to the EM slowdown, it actually began back in 2010, and growth has been stuck at a sluggish rate for the last two years. The BRIC economies account for much of the... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sedlabanki hints that rate hikes will soon be needed Iceland’s central bank kept its main interest rate unchanged at 6% at its meeting today but hinted strongly that rates will need to rise soon. We continue to think that the Sedlabanki will raise the... 20th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Stronger data to delay Norges Bank rate cut Recent Norwegian economic data suggest that a September rate cut is less likely than we hadpreviously thought. But we still think the Norges Bank will cut its key policy rate, currently at 1.5%,by the... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How might votes for rate hikes in the UK affect markets? If tomorrow’s minutes of the UK Monetary Policy Committee’s latest meeting reveal that some members voted to raise interest rates earlier this month, short-term Gilt yields may rise and sterling... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Has forward guidance been a success? One year on, the report card for the MPC’s forward guidance is decidedly mixed. While it may have boosted confidence, it seems to have fallen short of meeting the MPC’s aims of clarifying its... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Stronger data to delay Norges Bank rate cut Recent Norwegian economic data suggest that a September rate cut is less likely than we had previously thought. But we still think the Norges Bank will cut its key policy rate, currently at 1.5%, by... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Recovery to maintain pace despite headwinds While the recovery in consumer spending is no longer gaining pace, we expect it to remain brisk over the next couple of years. Real earnings should pick up as inflation eases and further falls in... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB has too much faith in long-term inflation expectations The key remaining barrier to bolder ECB policy support seems to be the Governing Council’s viewthat long-term inflation expectations are “well-anchored”. We have doubts over the usefulness ofsuch... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak Q2 GDP underlines case for more easing Last quarter's GDP figures were weaker than we had expected, and we've adjusted our growth forecast for 2014 from 1.5% to 0.9%. What's more, growth in the current fiscal year may be close to zero... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian inflation likely to stay subdued Inflation remains subdued across most of Asia, and we see little danger of it accelerating significantly any time soon. As such, we only expect rate hikes in a few economies before the end of 2014 . 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stalled recovery intensifies pressure on the ECB The euro-zone’s economic recovery came to a complete halt in the second quarter at what shouldhave been a very early stage. There were some temporary factors at play which suggest thatgrowth should... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Plenty to talk about at Jackson Hole Federal Reserve officials will be heading to their annual policy get together at Jackson Hole later this week. We expect little in the way of direct insights into the monetary policy outlook... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil set to post sharp drop in Q2 GDP The release of June’s activity data allows us to firm up our estimate of Q2 GDP in Brazil – and the news isn’t good. We think that GDP may have contracted by 0.5% q/q in the second quarter. And with... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Cracks emerge in the “Africa Rising” story The long-run growth outlook for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains good, but recent developments have caused cracks to emerge in the “Africa Rising” story. Budget and current account positions have... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: more interest rate cuts to come Policymakers in Chile cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.50% last night and gave a clear indication that there is more monetary easing to come. If economic growth does not pick up as we expect ,the risks... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
