US Economics Update What would keep the Fed on hold? Despite the prospect of inflation spending most of this year below zero and the mixed news on wages, we still believe that the Fed will raise rates by June at the latest. Nonetheless, it is worth... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Pressure building for divided Polish MPC to cut rates The immediate outlook for Polish interest rates has been muddied by the increasingly acrimonious divisions that have opened up within the MPC. On balance it looks more likely that the Council will opt... 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish CPI (Dec. 14) The fall in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in December was smaller than expected but it is unlikely to alleviate the pressure on the Riksbank to take bolder action to boost inflation. 13th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: market tensions ease, but recession looms large The tensions in Russia’s financial markets triggered by last month’s ruble crisis seem to have eased over the past couple of weeks. But the first signs have emerged that the economy is falling into... 12th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to focus on deflation, not politics Data last week, including the drop in HICP inflation to -0.2%, heightened the risk of a prolonged bout of deflation in the single currency area. But on the face of it at least, the escalating... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The combination of a decent 252,000 rise in payroll employment in December and a further fall in the unemployment rate to 5.6%, from 5.8%, still leaves the door open to the Fed raising interest rates... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: EMs in an era of low oil prices The sharp fall in oil prices will provide a welcome boost to growth in the majority of emerging economies in 2015, but at the cost of slower growth in much of the Middle East and deepening crises in a... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE now better placed to weather a Greek exit from the euro-zone Renewed fears of a Greek exit from the euro-zone have raised concerns about contagion to Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This is understandable. After all, when the threat of euro-zone break-up... 9th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Deflation will last longer this time The euro-zone is back in deflation just over five years since the end of the last period of falling prices seen in 2009. But unlike that last bout, which lasted just five months, deflation looks set... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Cheap oil to slash inflation and bolster growth The slump in oil prices, along with renewed concerns about Greece, have taken a toll on investor confidence in the past week or so, causing equity markets to fall and demand for safe-haven assets to... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Shining a light on “stealth” stimulus Markets have latched onto two low-key policy developments at the start of 2015 as evidence that policymakers are pursuing both monetary and fiscal stimulus by stealth. We don’t think either amounts to... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec.) Mexican inflation fell for the second consecutive month in December, confirming that it has peaked. We expect the CPI rate to fall further over the coming months, and to remain close to the central... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Oil price plunge won’t distract MPC from underlying picture With the recovery showing signs of frailty and the chances of deflation growing, the MPC is under little immediate pressure to raise interest rates. But since lower oil prices should put the spring... 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Dec.) The rise in Egyptian inflation last month, which took it back into double-digits, rules out any possibility of an interest rate cut by the Central Bank of Egypt at next week’s meeting. 8th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian MPC hints at rate cuts, but spooked by Greece The National Bank of Romania’s Governor, Mugur Isarescu , struck a dovish note at this afternoon’s press conference, which suggests that the interest rate cut earlier today to a fresh record low of 2... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Cause for optimism in 2015 In our first Watch of 2015, we outline the prospects for India’s economy over the coming year. Falling commodity prices should brighten the outlook by providing a boost to consumer spending and... 7th January 2015 · 1 min read
