Canada Chart Pack Another interest rate cut shouldn’t be ruled out Financial markets are going cold on the prospect of another rate cut from the Bank of Canada. The Bank has already cut rates twice this year in response to the oil shock. Although the economy may no... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sweden’s Riksbank loosens policy but still more needed The decision by Sweden’s Riksbank to increase the size of its government bond-buying programme was clearly a response to the growing anticipation of more stimulus from the ECB. We think that these... 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US interest rates just one factor driving commodity prices The conventional wisdom is that the outlook for US interest rates will be critical in determining the prospects for commodity prices over the next few years. Indeed, some commentators seem to base... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Vietnam and Bangladesh exports bucking the trend Fossil fuels should continue to be the world’s most important energy source for the foreseeable future. However, renewable energy production will grow rapidly and become an increasingly large part of... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Cote d’Ivoire & Tanzania: Peaceful elections a welcome sign Peaceful elections held earlier this month in Cote d’Ivoire and Tanzania were welcome signs of improving institutions in both countries. While final results haven’t been announced yet, the fact that... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Kneejerk reaction to rising mortgage rates unlikely The tightening in monetary conditions triggered by the recent rises in mortgage rates by the major banks and the strengthening in the dollar is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) The growth rate of our M3 broad money aggregate slowed to 5.0% in September butbank loans are still expanding at a healthy 7.7% clip. 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ likely to announce more stimulus on Friday The recent rebound in underlying inflation provides a reason for the Bank of Japan to stand pat at Friday’s meeting, but not a compelling one. With the economy back in recession and the tight labour... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bigger fiscal expansion may eventually be needed Canada’s growth outlook is one of the weakest among G7 members and other advanced economies. Low commodity prices are the main reason for this. With falling business investment weighing the economy... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB QE expansion now more likely than ever ECB President Mario Draghi surprised many with his very dovish comments at the press conference that followed last week’s ECB Governing Council meeting. But he remained coy about what tools the Bank... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Stimulus, plus a dash of reform The People’s Bank has delivered another jolt of stimulus in the form of cuts to both benchmark interest rates and the required reserve ratio. Deposit rates have also now been fully liberalised, an... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Are negative interest rates effective? This week’s news that the ECB discussed cutting its deposit rate further below zero has revived discussion of the limits to, and effects of, negative interest rates. Their use by several European... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Inflation to play a more pivotal role in the policy debate Our forecast that underlying inflation in Australia will fall below the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target range next year suggests that inflation will soon start to have a bigger influence on policy... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB all but promises more support in December While the European Central Bank left monetary policy unchanged today, President Draghi gave even stronger-than-anticipated signals that the QE programme will be expanded in December. 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed now likely to delay first rate hike until early 2016 It is highly unlikely that the Fed will spring a surprise rate hike at next week's FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday 28th October, and even the odds of a hike at the December meeting have... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Revival in consumer spending remains elusive Despite the tailwinds of low inflation and reductions in interest rates over the past few months, consumer spending in India remains subdued. This is due in large part to continued problems in the... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
