India Chart Pack Economy is not out of the woods yet India’s revised GDP data paint a far healthier picture of the economy over the past couple of years than had previously appeared the case. GDP growth for FY13/14 was revised up from 4.7% to 6.9%. In... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB highlights limits to its support The first ever publication of ECB minutes confirmed that support for the new QE programme was not unanimous, suggesting that its scale will remain limited. The account, together with the Bank’s... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Ind. Prod. (Jan.) The release of January’s activity data for Russia was delayed by two hours today but when they finally arrived they brought further evidence that consumers are bearing the brunt of the economy’s... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Feb.) & Labour market (Dec./Jan.) The minutes of February’s MPC meeting showed that the Committee is more divided about the next move in interest rates than the unanimous vote would suggest. The healthy labour market figures released... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Cautious Bank of Japan still set to ease again in late-April Governor Kuroda today expressed the usual confidence about Japan’s economic prospects and the likelihood of price pressures picking up. But with the recent economic data disappointing and inflation... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Aggressive rate cuts unlikely in Indonesia With inflation set to stay elevated until the end of the year and the current account deficit likely to remain a source of vulnerability, today’s rate cut by Bank Indonesia is unlikely to signal the... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia’s crisis to deepen but contagion to remain limited The deepening downturn in Russia will depress aggregate growth across Emerging Europe this year but the outlook for most countries will be shaped more by developments in the euro-zone than it will by... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack New evidence of PBOC intervention to support renminbi Data for January showed Chinese banks continuing to sell FX to the non-bank sector last month. This has a few implications. First, the fact that banks were net sellers despite a record trade surplus... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Household debt concerns to keep Korean rates on hold The Bank of Korea (BoK) today left its policy rate on hold at 2.0% after the government softened its pressure for further loosening. Looking ahead, we think persistent concerns about high household... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish CPI (Jan. 15) The unexpected rise in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in January will be welcomed by the Riksbank but with prices still falling on an annual basis, we think the central bank will need to cut the... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru Economic Activity (Dec.) December’s activity data suggest that economic growth in Peru dropped to a five-year low in the fourth quarter of last year. A fiscal stimulus will start to bear fruit in early 2015, but weak data... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Data Response Wholesale Prices (Jan.) Wholesale price inflation dropped into negative territory in January to its lowest rate since June 2009. In particular, the sharp fall in core inflation adds to evidence elsewhere of increasing... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q4 Preliminary) While Japan’s economy has finally left the tax-related weakness behind, the increase in Q4 GDP fell short of expectations and supports our view that the Bank of Japan will announce more stimulus in... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What could the Bank of Canada do beyond rate cuts? The Bank of Canada's recent focus on the dangers to the economy of low oil prices may well prompt it to cut interest rates again. At only 0.75% now, however, the scope for additional interest rate... 16th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Cut in Bank Rate returns to policy toolkit With CPI inflation on the verge of turning negative, last week’s Inflation Report saw Bank of England Governor Mark Carney discuss his available policy options should deflation show signs of becoming... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s housing market recovery to continue Korea’s housing market is showing signs of recovery, supported by the fall in stocks of unsold homes, rising rents, low interest rates and supportive government policies. A stronger housing market... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
