Europe Economics Weekly Euro's drop doesn't let ECB off the hook The continued depreciation of the euro exchange rate points to much-needed increases in export growth and imported inflation in the coming months. But this does not eliminate the risk of deflation and... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Inflation outlook has not changed While the recent softening in price pressures suggests that core inflation won’t hit the Fed’s 2% target until a bit later than we previously thought, we still think it will get there by mid-2015... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Growth concerns come to the fore The past month has seen renewed concerns about the growth outlook for much of Latin America. GDP in the region grew by just 1.1% y/y in Q2 and the available data so far point to a similar pace of... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch The era of global QE is not over Although the Fed is about to end its asset purchases, quantitative easing in the world as a whole still has a long way to go. The BoJ has already been buying assets on a larger scale than the Fed for... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch Preparing the ground for QE The ECB now seems to be taking deflation risks more seriously, implementing surprise interest rate cuts in September and leaving the door wide open to quantitative easing. With the economy apparently... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Outlook Diverging rate paths to favour gilts Since the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is probably only a few months away from starting to raise interest rates, gilt yields are likely to depart from their three decade long downward trend soon... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank keeps rates on hold, policy to remain tight The Turkish central bank kept its key interest rates unchanged today, but there are signs that policymakers have started to tighten monetary conditions via the interest rate “corridor” to counter the... 25th September 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Core inflation will bounce back Despite the weaker core inflation readings over the past couple of months, we still expect core inflation to climb gradually, rising above the Fed's 2% target in the first half of next year... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Sep.) September’s Ifo survey brought further worrying signs that the recovery in the German economy is grinding to a halt and underlined the need for both monetary and fiscal policy to provide further... 24th September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack What is behind the recent currency weakness? Sizeable falls in a number of Asian currencies against the US dollar over the past month have rekindled unwelcome memories of last summer’s “Taper Tantrum”. As was the case during last year’s sell-off... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary to keep rates at record low well into next year The National Bank of Hungary’s post-meeting press release reinforced the message that the MPC sees little pressure to raise interest rates. Indeed, with inflation likely to remain low, and economic... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia: towards a period of softer growth Colombia’s economy has been a rare bright spot in Latin America so far this year but, while we don’t expect growth to collapse, we do expect it to slow over 2015-16. This in turn is likely to mean... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Next SARB Governor faces an uphill task Speculation is mounting that one of the current Deputy Governors will take over from Gill Marcus as Governor of the South African Reserve Bank. But the bigger picture is that, whoever is appointed... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lankan rates outlook dependent on credit growth dynamics Following last week's strong GDP figures, the central bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) kept its deposit and lending rates on hold at 6.5% and 8.0%, respectively, today. But with credit growth staying sluggish... 23rd September 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Even as the Fed has reduced the pace of its monthly asset purchases, the annual rate of broad money growth has remained largely stable at close to 6%. 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Low uptake dashes ECB’s hopes for TLTROs The low uptake at the first of the ECB’s Targeted Longer-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) last week supported our view that the policy is unlikely to be successful at boosting bank lending. It... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
