China Economics Update Is weak credit demand undermining monetary policy? There has been some suggestion that policymakers are struggling to stimulate lending because firms have little appetite to borrow. Credit demand does appear to have softened. But there is no evidence... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish Bank Governor strikes a dovish note Following a larger-than-expected interest rate cut in Poland earlier today, Governor Belkaunderstandably maintained an extremely dovish stance at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference. At the... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus How do the US and UK monetary policy outlooks differ? Although we anticipate that the first interest rate hikes in both the US and the UK will come around the same time, towards the end of the first quarter next year, we expect the subsequent pace of... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Weaker currencies add to need for tighter monetary policy African currencies have not been immune to the recent sell-off in EM financial markets, raising concern in some countries about rising inflation. In this Watch, we examine which economies are likely... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates in Indonesia to remain on hold for a while yet Today’s decision by Bank Indonesia (BI) to leave interest rates on hold despite the slowing economy reflects continued unease over the size of the current account deficit. With the deficit likely to... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The ruble’s decline and what it means for Russia The steep fall in the ruble over the past month will affect different parts of the economy in different ways. The government is likely to be one of the major winners. By contrast, consumers are likely... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ not yet ready to expand stimulus With policy settings again left unchanged, the key development at today’s Bank of Japan meeting was policymakers’ acknowledgement of the recent sluggishness of the economy. However, we still think... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Interest rates in Australia to remain low The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its main policy rate on hold at 2.50% today, and again signalled that it is not planning any change in monetary policy in the near-term. Although most analysts... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will the euro-zone ever escape abnormality? Don’t be fooled by the apparent normalisation of the euro-zone’s financial markets. Conditions in the currency union’s economy are still a very long way from normal. 6th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing bubble unlikely to prompt a rate hike Housing bubble fears have prompted some commentators to suggest that the Bank of Canada should hike interest rates before it's too late. But since the Bank doesn't typically target asset price... 6th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB already doing QE? The ECB confirmed last week that it will start to buy assets outright later this month and that the purchases will not be sterilised. But technically, this probably still amounts to credit easing... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US recovery relatively immune to global slowdown We don’t think that the US will catch the latest economic cold that is currently afflicting Europe and parts of Asia. It’s worth remembering that the US is a fairly closed economy, which means it’s... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery aggravates existing imbalances While the economic recovery seems to have broadly maintained its strong pace in the third quarter, the latest national accounts contained signs that the recovery has exacerbated some of the economy’s... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What next for monetary policy in Singapore? The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is expected to keep its exchange rate policy on hold at its upcoming bi-annual policy meeting. In any case, the most important changes to monetary conditions... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Japan back in recession? The latest Tankan survey suggests that the economy shrank again in the third quarter, as does the prolonged fall in industrial production. However, we think the recent decline in output reflects the... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Could Q3 be as good as it gets? Although global growth should be a little faster in the second half of the year than the first, it is unlikely to continue rising in the coming quarters. Admittedly, the US looks set for a sustained... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
