Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea to keep rates on pause through 2016 With the domestic economy on the mend, the Bank of Korea (BoK) left its policy rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50% today. We expect the BoK to keep rates at their current lows throughout 2016. 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand: 2.5% won’t be the floor After cutting interest rates today from 2.75% back to the record low of 2.50% seen during the Global Financial Crisis, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand sent a strong signal that it doesn’t think rates... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish, Danish & Norwegian Consumer Prices (Nov. 15) November’s consumer prices data showed a continued divergence between the subdued rates of inflation in Sweden and Denmark and stronger price pressures in Norway, reflecting the recent depreciation of... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Respite for the SNB, but fight against franc is not over With the ECB’s cautious action last week reducing upward pressure on the franc against the euro, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) was able to leave policy on hold as expected today. But we still think... 10th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key calls for EMs in 2016 The EM world looks to have grown by its weakest pace since the global financial crisis in 2015, but things should start to improve next year. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we think... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Fed & oil prices bail out the ECB? The recent further fall in oil prices and imminent commencement of monetary tightening in the US are unlikely to compensate for the ECB’s disappointingly timid action at last week’s policy meeting. 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK stuck between transatlantic policy divergence It now looks odds on that the US Federal Reserve presses ahead and raises interest rates next week, while on the other side of the English Channel, the ECB has already loosened policy further. The UK... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed on the cusp of historic rate hike At next week’s FOMC meeting, which concludes on 16 th December, the Fed is now almost universally expected to raise the fed funds rate by 25 basis points, to a range of between 0.25% and 0.50%. In the... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Iceland holds rates but more hikes will be needed Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to keep its key interest rates unchanged was merely a reflection of the improvement in the short-term inflation outlook and a tighter policy stance will... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Declining EU investment funds in 2016 not a disaster for CEE One factor that has supported growth in Central and Eastern Europe this year is a rise in EU structural funding, but this looks set to ease in 2016. As we explain in this Watch, while this will reduce... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Five reasons not to panic about Fed “lift-off” We do not think that higher US interest rates will derail the global recovery next year. The Fed is only likely to tighten policy if the economy continues to do well. Other major central banks will... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Iceland holds rates but more hikes will be needed Today’s decision by Iceland’s central bank to keep its key interest rates unchanged was merely a reflection of the improvement in the short-term inflation outlook and a tighter policy stance will... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Can the euro-zone weather the global headwinds? The euro-zone has proved relatively resilient in the face of global headwinds, but the region still has to contend with significant domestic problems. And with fiscal policy unlikely to provide a big... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Higher inflation is coming Although we expect GDP growth to be a moderate 2.5% next year, the big surprise will be how quickly inflation rebounds. With domestic price pressures mounting and this year’s deflationary shocks from... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Iceland GDP (Q3) The solid growth in Iceland’s GDP in Q3 confirmed that the economy is performing strongly and has put the 2008 collapse of the banking sector behind it. With domestic demand very healthy, the central... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.) & IMACEC (Oct.) The further fall in Chilean inflation in November is an encouraging sign that price pressures in the economy are easing. While this reduces the likelihood of the central bank hiking interest rates... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
