Africa Economics Update Kenyan interest rates held, but will rise within 12 months The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.50% today, but we think that currency weakness and the return of inflationary pressures will prompt the bank to raise... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch How negative can interest rates go? Sweden’s Riksbank cut interest rates into negative territory this month, following in the footsteps of the Danish and Swiss central banks and the ECB. Although central bankers are instinctively... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Waiting for reassurance on wages The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to leave interest rates on hold in February and looks set to sit on its hands over the next few months as CPI inflation descends into negative... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russian consumers feel the squeeze The latest data have given mixed signals on the performance of Emerging Europe’s economies. The encouraging news is that growth in much of Central Europe (particularly Poland and Hungary) seems to be... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America has turned a corner, but recovery is uneven Growth in Latin America appears to have picked up in recent months. Our proprietary GDP Tracker suggests that the region’s economy expanded by about 1.5% y/y in the fourth quarter of last year, having... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Time to worry about deflation? Emerging Asia has seen a sharp drop in inflationary pressures over the past few months. Taiwan, Singapore and Thailand are now experiencing deflation, while inflation is 1% y/y or below in Malaysia... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What to look for in the upcoming budget Investors are likely to focus on plans for fiscal consolidation when the FY15/16 budget is unveiled on Saturday, but progress on economic reform also warrants close attention. The crucial things to... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Has the tide turned for the Danish krone? The recent sharp drop in the Danish krone back to its central rate against the euro suggests that the Danish Nationalbank has been successful in preserving its currency peg. But the upward pressure on... 25th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the US stock market? The US stock market has weathered the approach of monetary tightening well and we expect it to continue to do so once the FOMC begins to raise the federal funds rate. Nonetheless, we would be... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen positions the Fed for a June rate hike Chair Janet Yellen's prepared congressional testimony, which struck a more upbeat tone on labour market conditions and included a detailed discussion of how the forward guidance will be amended... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey cuts rates but lira concerns limit room for further easing Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) justified today’s decision to lower interest rates on the grounds that inflation has fallen back, but the reality is that it remains under intense pressure from the... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 Consumer Prices (Feb.) A further sharp rise in Brazilian inflation in the first half of February has tipped the balance towards another 50bp increase in the Selic interest rate at next month’s central bank meeting, rather... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Vietnam CPI (Feb.) Consumer price inflation in Vietnam slowed again in February, and looks set to remain very low for the coming year. With the economy still overwhelmingly dependent on exports for growth, another rate... 24th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: case for interest rate cuts building Interest rates in Colombia were left unchanged at 4.50% on Friday but a slightly more dovish tone in the accompanying statement, combined with the announcement of budget cuts over the weekend... 23rd February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Dip into deflation will be brief This week we expect to learn that, principally because of the recent collapse in energy prices, US headline inflation plummeted into negative territory in January. Once the temporary effects from... 20th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Regional inflation heading in opposite directions Inflation across the emerging world has been heading in different directions in recent months. In Latin America and Emerging Europe it has risen, led by increases in regulated prices in Brazil and the... 19th February 2015 · 1 min read
