China Data Response FX reserves (Nov.) Today’s data suggest that capital outflows picked up sharply last month, leading the People’s Bank to resume selling FX in order to prop up the value of the renminbi. 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI's faith in finance ministry is misplaced The RBI is expressing a high degree of faith in the finance ministry’s ability to offset a rising public sector wage bill by boosting tax revenues or trimming other forms of current spending. We fear... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Interest rate hikes tied to pace of inflation rebound Last week Chair Janet Yellen all but confirmed that the Fed will begin to raise interest rates from near-zero at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which ends on 16 th December. Any final doubts should have... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are UK bonds in for a choppy ride? There was much talk about the emerging “transatlantic divergence” last week. It now looks odds on that the US Fed will press ahead and raise interest rates later this month. Meanwhile, on the other... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) & Int. Trade (Oct.) The 211,000 gain in November's non-farm payrolls, along with the 35,000 upward revision to the gains in the preceding two months, would appear to seal an interest rate hike at the Fed's upcoming FOMC... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Mariodona shoots wide The ECB’s failure to live up to its own hype at December’s Governing Council meeting looks likely to have at least some negative consequences, both on the economic outlook via the market response and... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery regaining pace, but looking unbalanced The UK economy appears to be regaining a little momentum, but the nature of the recovery is looking quite unbalanced. The breakdown of Q3’s 0.5% quarterly rise in real GDP showed solid growth in... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Markets shrug off MPC’s warnings And so another year of rock bottom interest rates is set to pass us by. It is getting on for seven years since interest rates reached 0.5% and it is over eight years since we saw an interest rate rise... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB fails to live up to its own hype The European Central Bank’s failure to meet the expectations for further policy loosening fuelled by its own dovish signals has dented both its reputation for communication and, more importantly, the... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey CPI (Nov.) The jump in Turkish inflation to a much higher than expected 8.1% y/y in November reinforces our view that the central bank will be forced to hike interest rates over the coming months. 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Better data not enough to prevent cut to 2.5% The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will probably cut interest rates by 0.25%, from 2.75% to 2.50%, at the policy meeting on Thursday 10th December. What’s more, and despite the release of some positive... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada remains neutral on rate outlook The Bank of Canada’s decision to leave its policy rate at 0.50% today was as expected given that the economy returned to positive growth in the third quarter. Although it believes economic growth will... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Sterling to keep playing piggy in the middle While monetary policy looks set to start moving in opposite directions in the US and euro-zone very soon, no change looks likely in the UK in the near future. Sterling is therefore likely to be caught... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Current QE rules won’t stop the ECB An expansion of the QE programme tomorrow would probably require some changes to ECB rules. But we do not think that this will be enough to deter the Bank from implementing more stimulus. 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia to surface from recession, but recovery weak Having contracted in 2015, we expect the economy of Emerging Europe to return to growth in 2016. This will be driven in large part by an improvement in conditions in the region’s largest economy... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC getting closer to acting, but will tread carefully We got close to finally seeing some action from the Bank of England today. But in the event, the latest Financial Stability Report only prepped the ground for action from the Financial Policy... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
