India Data Response Trade (Jan.) India’s trade deficit narrowed in January as the sharp fall in global oil prices continued to feed through to the import bill. The smaller deficit provides the central bank with further scope to... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jan.) Today’s lending data suggest that while a slightly more accommodative policy stance has continued to support bank lending, broader credit growth remains on a downward path. 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Concerns about yen unlikely to prevent more BoJ easing We doubt that concerns about rising import costs caused by a renewed weakening of the yen will prevent the Bank of Japan from announcing more stimulus in April. Instead, we maintain our view that... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No further rate cuts in Chile, but more to come in Peru Interest rates in both Chile and Peru were left unchanged last night and, while we do not expect further monetary stimulus in Chile as its economy is finally showing signs of strengthening, we think... 13th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Russia doomed? It’s widely acknowledged by now that the Russian economy is set for a deep recession this year and we think a fall in output of around 5% is likely. This would be similar in scale to the contraction... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (Feb.) February’s Bank of England Inflation Report confirmed that deflation is now on the horizon, but that it will be fairly short-lived. Indeed, the stronger medium-term inflation forecast was a warning to... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank follows the negative trend The Swedish Riksbank today became the latest central bank to respond to the threat of persistent deflation by pushing interest rates into negative territory and launching a quantitative easing... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines unlikely to join Asian rate cutting cycle Despite the recent drop in inflation, the central bank in the Philippines is unlikely to join a number of other central banks in the region that have loosened monetary policy since the start of the... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank follows the negative trend The Swedish Riksbank today became the latest central bank to respond to the threat of persistent deflation by pushing interest rates into negative territory and launching a quantitative easing... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch BoJ to surprise markets by easing again in April The plunge in energy prices should provide a welcome fillip to economic activity, and thus strengthen price pressure in the medium term. But the more pressing concern is that lower inflation threatens... 11th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Recent market moves a net positive for GDP growth As a result of the recent slump in crude oil prices and the decline in long-term borrowing costs, we are raising our real GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 3.3%, from 3.0%. The boost to real consumption... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Rate hike could still come sooner than markets think Markets have revised their expectations for interest rates significantly, such that they now expect the first rise in Bank Rate to occur in Q1 next year, some four months earlier than they did at the... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) Loan growth moderated in January, and a range of leading indicators suggest that borrowing will slow further in coming months. 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Rep: Euro-zone clouds outlook, policy to be eased further Renewed weakness in Germany and the crisis in Russia will weigh on the Czech Republic’s key export sector in the coming quarters. However, the conditions are in place for domestic demand to strengthen... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Jan.) Egyptian inflation fell back in January and looks set to ease further over the coming months. Further interest rate cuts are likely this year, but we suspect that the CBE will wait until the effects... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss & Danish CPI (Jan. 15) January’s falls in Swiss and Danish CPI inflation into or further into negative territory highlight the need for central banks to do more to prevent their respective currencies appreciating further... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
