UK Data Response Labour market data (Aug./Sep.) The latest labour market statistics confirmed that the jobs recovery is back on track after the dip in employment in the spring. Meanwhile, the easing in pay growth has further reduced the case for a... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Singapore unlikely to loosen policy again The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today opted to “reduce slightly” the slope of its target band for the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER), which amounts to very modest loosening of its... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are bond investors wrong about the prospects for Fed policy? We expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate at 0.50% next week and retain its neutral stance on the rate outlook. The incoming data indicate that third-quarter GDP growth was stronger than... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Sep.) The small rise in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in September to just above zero may be just about enough to prevent the Riksbank from loosening policy further at the end of this month. But we still... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Global uncertainty adds to downside risks The European economy has performed relatively well over recent months amid financial market unrest and signs of a slowdown elsewhere. But the euro-zone’s exporters are still not benefitting from the... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
India Economics Update What can the RBI do to get banks to lower interest rates? Having cut the repo rate by 125bp this year, the RBI has shifted its focus to ensuring that banks pass on these rate reductions to borrowers. In truth, high levels of bad debt mean that the banking... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Sep.15) The small rise in Sweden’s headline inflation rate in September to just above zero maybe just about enough to prevent the Riksbank from loosening policy further at the end of this month. But we still... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Emerging Asia set for recovery The jump in Egyptian inflation to 9.2% y/y in September was driven almost entirely by a rise in the volatile food component. While we do expect inflation to fall back again, last month’s data mean an... 12th October 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is the New Zealand dollar still overvalued? The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is likely to update its estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) next month. We suspect that these will show that the New... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the recovery running out of steam? A raft of gloomy survey data has fuelled fears that the UK’s economic recovery is running out of steam. There are some indications that quarterly GDP growth will moderate from 0.7% in Q2 to 0.5% or so... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Lower price expectations add to case for more easing Expectations of future price rises among Japanese households and firms have been undermined by the energy-related collapse in observed inflation. Even though the drag from cheaper energy will fade in... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Softer economic news further alleviates need for hike The MPC’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.5% this month would have been an easy one given the recent softening in both domestic and global economic news. While financial markets have... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf likely to avoid bank liquidity crunch We think recent concerns that a withdrawal of government deposits from commercial banks will result in a liquidity crunch across the Gulf are overdone. Policymakers have plenty in their toolkit to... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Egypt Consumer Prices (Sep.) The jump in Egyptian inflation to 9.2% y/y in September was driven almost entirely by a rise in the volatile food component. While we do expect inflation to fall back again, last month’s data mean an... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Ind. Prod. (Aug.) & Hungary CPI (Sep.) The larger-than-expected rise in Turkish industrial production in August was encouraging, although given the more recent declines in business confidence, it’s not clear whether this will be sustained... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack World economy not falling off a cliff! Disappointing payrolls data from the US, weak commodity prices and another downbeat set of business surveys have fuelled fears that global growth is collapsing. However, we continue to think these... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
